以下是简介
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More evidence that the economic cycle is turning up...
The past week brought more evidence that global economic activity continues to improve and that the economic cycle in the United States is turning up, with job destruction poised to give way at last to job creation.While we continue to expect that improving near-term oil supply-demand
fundamentals will tighten WTI crude oil timespreads further and lift WTI crude oil prices into an $85–$95/bbl trading range this year, the question of when and whether the market will return to backwardation has been increasingly asked.
... suggesting a return to backwardation this summer
In our view, movement between contango and backwardation is simply a part of the turning of the inventory cycle. As inventories decline and the benefits to physical oil producers, consumers, and refiners of having oil inventories on-hand begin to outweigh their costs of storing it, they will increasingly be willing to pay to hold inventories, removing the carry in the forward curve and flipping it into backwardation.
For this time of year, OECD total petroleum inventories would need to be 100-150 million barrels below current estimated levels for front-month to rise above second-month WTI crude oil prices. Given our forecasted path for inventories, we don’t expect to see this happen until later this summer although we would expect front-month WTI to price above longer-dated contracts earlier and for longer. We expect this backwardation will prove short-lived, as the flattening of the curve and return of inventories to more normal levels will likely motivate the return of OPEC spare capacity to the market in the second half of the year, creating a short-term surplus and
pushing the market back into contango. However, we expect the market to return to a more persistent backwardation in 2011, as OPEC spare capacity is absorbed by the market as world oil demand continues to grow with the strengthening economic recovery.lized level of oil inventories that the market will hold between 40 and 60 million barrels.
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其实结论一点都不重要,重要的是方法,个人认为其言简意赅,且方法论述的很精密.而你如果了解其逻辑的话,会更让你理解,2008年那次过山车式的石油波动.
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