[翻译][转帖]“大个儿”谎言

Irkie 发表于 2005-6-17 13:47:14

译者：Irkie
NBA的大个儿给了我们三个教训：1）联盟不相信小球；2）超级中锋紧缺的年代，囤积大个儿不嫌多；3）即使貌似埃里克·丹皮尔这样的中锋也值那么多钱。
大个儿赢冠军
NBA一直是大个儿的联盟。怎么才能赢？要么拥有最好的大个儿，要么找足够多的准大个儿去对付最好的大个儿。
追溯NBA的历史，整个60年代和70年代早期，冠军都被拥有比尔·拉塞尔、威尔特·张伯伦、卡里姆·阿布杜-贾巴尔、比尔·沃顿等人的球队抢走了。之后，在小牛加入NBA的25年里，最激烈的竞争仍然在篮下。
80年代，湖人（贾巴尔）、凯尔特人（帕里什-麦克海尔-伯德）和76人（摩西·马龙）三足鼎立。然后轮到活塞登顶并卫冕成功，他们没有最好的大个儿，却有兰比尔、罗德曼、马洪和沙利这样的准大个儿。
在那以后，冠军6次被公牛夺得。光有伟大的乔丹是不够的，他们的称霸也始于赢得篮下的肉搏，没有最好的大个儿，有的是一群准大个儿。
公牛时代结束后，冠军一直被大个儿球队霸占，直到去年。休斯敦靠阿基姆·奥拉朱旺两连冠，圣安东尼奥靠大卫·罗宾逊-蒂姆·邓肯先后两次问鼎，湖人更是靠沙奎尔·奥尼尔三连冠。然后又是活塞，实用的准大个儿（华莱士-华莱士-奥科-坎贝尔-威廉姆森-雷布拉卡）击败了奥尼尔和他的湖人。
今年呢？大同小异。两支球队（活塞和马刺）都有足够多的大个儿和准大个儿在篮下搏杀。
如果小牛想拿总冠军，他们的（准）大个儿在哪儿？小牛有丹皮尔，诺维茨基和范霍恩也能帮忙儿，但是没有更好的，所以他们需要更多人手，好有朝一日能在季后赛存活到最后。
永远不嫌多
底特律活塞在拉里·布朗的调教下成为东部最好的球队之一，而且以作风强悍著称，特别是在篮下。03-04赛季，他们有入选NBA第二阵容的中锋本·华莱士，替补准大个儿还有梅米特·奥科、泽亚克·雷布拉卡、柯利斯·威廉姆森，外加被大肆吹捧的榜眼秀达科-米里西奇。别忘了03年夏天，他们还找来了老将埃尔登·坎贝尔，在转会大门儿关闭前又添入拉希德·华莱士。这样，后者打首发前锋，前者则在季后赛的一些关键时刻上场对付沙奎尔·奥尼尔，最终活塞夺得冠军。上赛季结束后，奥科和雷布拉卡成为自由球员转会走人，威廉姆森也被卖了，大个儿核心剩下华莱士-华莱士-米里西奇-坎贝尔。活塞又签来自由球员安东尼奥·麦克戴斯，赛季中用坎贝尔做筹码解决了后卫之需——后又签回坎贝尔，尽管他在队里顶多做大个儿第四人。今年季后赛，麦克戴斯成为最主要的替补大个儿，坎贝尔也在对迈阿密的比赛里有不错表现，帮助活塞击败热队晋级总决赛。
圣安东尼奥在2003年夺冠后，大卫·罗宾逊即退役，但他们还有蒂姆·邓肯、凯文·威利斯、马里克·罗斯，当年夏天又签来自由球员拉多斯拉夫·内斯特洛维奇和罗伯特·霍利。上赛季结束后，威利斯被老将托尼·马森博格取代；转会大门儿关闭前，马刺的常规赛排名已经升顶，但他们仍然换来了尼克斯的首发中锋纳兹尔·穆罕默德。现在，穆罕默德在马刺打首发中锋，成为球队季后赛的重要一员。
惟一拥有最好的大个儿的球队就是迈阿密热队了，他们有沙奎尔·奥尼尔。尽管如此，在争冠的路上，他们的总经理帕特·莱利（在湖人夺得6次冠军）还是签来了替补中锋阿朗佐·莫宁，为了支援奥尼尔。
总冠军们知道，得内线者得天下。信不信，再来一个大个儿总能帮上忙儿。
为什么“大好”就能赢？
以下几个理由可能有偏激之处，但可以解释为什么有好大个儿的球队能赢得总冠军：
1、容易进球。扣篮和上篮比跳投更容易进，越靠近篮下得分的保险系数越高，好的大个儿能让进球变得容易，还能让对手进球不容易。
2、能抢篮板。好大个儿的特点之一是能抢篮板，在难分难解的比赛里，篮板意味着地盘儿、时间和机会。
3、加强防守。在一对一的较量中，块儿头就是屏障，篮下的封盖就是一堵墙。
菲尼克斯太阳是“榜样”？
很多人说太阳就是反驳NBA“大好大于小好”公理的例证。（菲尼克斯）当地作者兰迪·加洛韦最近撰文道，小牛放弃小球太早了，太阳们正把它提升到一个新境界。但真是这样吗？
太阳一个赛季没有中锋，一直由大前锋斯塔德迈尔客串中锋，小前锋马里昂打大前锋，分卫理查德森和约翰逊分别打小前锋和分卫，控卫是纳什，主要替补是分卫杰克逊。球队成为2004-05赛季常规赛第一，在两轮季后赛的10场比赛里赢了8场。在西部半决赛对阵“大好”的马刺时，“小好”的太阳在5场比赛后败下阵来，但有一个现象值得关注：在那5场比赛里，太阳经常用一个赛季较少上场的替补中锋史蒂文·亨特替换一个分卫，得到了很好的效果，以至一些其他队的球迷开始觊觎亨特。亨特一个赛季只有12场比赛上场达到或超过20分钟，却在对马刺的5场比赛里有2场打了30分钟，整个系列赛场均打了20分钟。+/-数据显示，亨特在该系列赛太阳输球的4场比赛里打了90分钟，他在场上时太阳+14，他不在场上时太阳-40。
“小好”球队可以在常规赛击败一般的对手，但太阳应该能发现（就像以前的小牛、国王等球队一样），季后赛还是篮下大个儿的地盘儿。自2002-03赛季的巅峰以后，小牛逐渐放弃了小球理念，开始寻找在篮下的地位，向传统型转变。那太阳呢，被吹捧为“革命性”的小球旋风会不会也寻求“复辟”之路呢？到时候，或许他们也会寻找一个……埃里克·丹皮尔型的球员。
大个儿不便宜
很多牛迷都对埃里克·丹皮尔的合同“大惊小怪”，一直耿耿于怀，但如果他们去看看NBA的中锋榜可能会更吃惊，因为丹皮尔就值那么多钱。
下表列出了2004-05赛季场均至少8分8篮板的大个儿和他们的年薪，从中可以看到，除了在新秀合同（RC）下的球员——他们的薪水和选修位置挂钩儿而与表现无关，管用的大个儿真是NBA的“贵族”。
POS.....NAME .......SALARY 2004-05
C .......Shaquille O'Neal ...27.7
PF .....Chris Webber ...17.5
PF .....Kevin Garnett ...16.0
PF .....Jermaine O'Neal ...14.8
PF .....Antoine Walker ...14.6
C .......Zydrunas Ilgauskas ...14.6
C/PF ..Tim Duncan ...14.3
PF .....Dirk Nowitzki ...12.6
PF .....Elton Brand ...12.1
SF(PF) ..Shawn Marion ...11.3
PF .....Carlos Boozer ...11.0
PF .....Lamar Odom ...10.5
C/PF.. Rasheed Wallace ...9.7
C/PF.. Marcus Camby ...8.5
C .......Jamaal Magloire ...8.5
C/PF ..P.J. Brown ...8.0
C/PF ..Brad Miller ...7.9
C .......Erick Dampier ...7.7
C .......Ben Wallace ...7.0
C/PF.. Kurt Thomas ...5.9 
C/PF ..Emeka Okafor ...RC
PF .....Troy Murphy ...RC
C .......Dwight Howard ...RC
C/PF ..Tyson Chandler ...RC
PF .....Zach Randolph ...RC
PF .....Drew Gooden ...RC
PF .....Udonis Haslem ...RC
C/PF ..Amare Stoudemire ...RC
C/PF ..Chris Bosh ....RC
C .......Yao Ming ...RC 
如果把大前锋和在新秀合同下的球员去掉，剩下的就是2004-05赛季场均至少8分8篮板的NBA中锋的“价格表”了。这样看来，丹皮尔不算贵，甚至可以算是“便宜货”。
C .......Shaquille O'Neal ...27.7M
C .......Zydrunas Ilgauskas ...14.6
C/PF ..Tim Duncan ...14.3
C/PF ..Rasheed Wallace ...9.7
C/PF.. Marcus Camby ...8.5
C .......Jamaal Magloire ...8.5
C/PF.. P.J. Brown ...8.0
C/PF.. Brad Miller ...7.9
C .......Erick Dampier ...7.7
C....... Ben Wallace ...7.0
C/PF.. Kurt Thomas ...5.9 
比较之下，本·华莱士的身价儿可委屈他了，除了他，丹皮尔只比柯特·托马斯（比丹皮尔大3岁，矮3英寸，轻40磅）贵，而比其他人都便宜。
那么问题何在？丹皮尔7千万美元的合同到了第4、第5或第7年可能会是值得争论的问题，但就2004-05赛季来说，他的年薪是正常值。
小牛怎么办？
由前所述可知，小牛需要大个儿，可是有必要像《达拉斯晨报》的埃迪·塞弗科最近写的那样，摆脱丹皮尔和他的合同吗？
用不着。刚才已经列出来了，丹皮尔不算太贵，更何况他已经在这儿了，所以问题不是他的去留——是小牛需要他的“同胞”。
回顾一下，小牛确实在转会大门儿关闭前找来了一个被定义为“投手”的替补，但他其实够个儿了，可以打中锋/前锋，他就是基思·范霍恩，不是很典型的“大个儿”，但足有6英尺10英寸高。如果这世界没有伤病，丹皮尔/诺维茨基/范霍恩的三人组合可以击败大部分对手。不幸的是，范霍恩在季后赛伤了，丹皮尔则陷入了犯规麻烦，三人组的效果就不用说了。
那还剩下什么选择？最简单的就是和阿兰·亨德森续约，这个老将有经验，有体力，还不计较上场时间，和他续约没什么坏处。
此外，无论如何，小牛需要更多的大个儿——尤其是中锋。丹皮尔只要能留在场上就还是有用的，但他是小牛季后赛惟一可以用的中锋，在场上还老呆不住。布拉德利、波德科尔金和姆本佳名义上是替补中锋，其实没一个能在季后赛帮上忙儿。小牛需要真正的替补中锋，不能老指望实际上是大前锋的诺维茨基、范霍恩和亨德森客串。
现有的3个替补（布拉德利、波德科尔金和姆本佳）能不能在下赛季派上用场呢？悬。如果不能，那就学习这些天正在争冠的球队吧，小牛也找一个大个儿——不是换掉现有的，是补强。
别的不说，至少在遇到这条规矩时，小牛和其他竞争者无二：大个儿不嫌多。
--------------------------------------------------------------
原文：
The Big Lies
Center Stuff You Thought You Knew
By David Lord -- DallasBasketball.com 
Three NBA big-man lessons we all need to learn: 1) This will never be a SmallBall league; 2) Short of employing one superstar center, teams need to stockpile an army of them; and 3) Shockingly, even a center as seemingly middlin’ as Erick Dampier is anything but overpaid. 
An expanded look at the above points, with Damp’s quite-acceptable salary offered as the cherry on top: 
WINNING A TITLE TAKES BIG MEN 
The NBA has always been a big man's league. How do you win? You either have to have the best big man in the game, or you have to find enough rugged big guys to overcome him. 
Going back in NBA history, through the 60s and early 70s, titles were won by teams that had players like Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Bill Walton, and so on. Moving to more recent times, in the 25 years since the Mavs have been in the NBA, it is still all about winning the battle near the basket. 
In the 80s, it was a 3-way battle between the Lakers (with Kareem), the Celtics (Parrish-McHale-Bird), and the 76ers (Moses Malone). Then the Pistons found a way to climb to the top and win back-to-back without one of the elite centers, by employing a rugged rotation using players like Laimbeer, Rodman, Mahorn, and Salley. 
After that, there were lots of titles won by the Bulls. But with Jordan's greatness on those teams, they only began to win titles when they got enough muscle in the middle to get past the teams with strong inside games. In winning 6 titles, they had a whole string of effective big men. None were elite players, but they were rugged and effective. 
Outside the Bulls' wins, the title has been won ever since by teams with elite big men, until last year. Houston won back-to-back behind Akeem Olajuwon. San Antonio won twice with the David Robinson-Tim Duncan tandem. The Lakers won 3 in a row with Shaquille O'Neal. Then the Pistons won again by gathering a whole slew of effective big men (Wallace-Wallace-Okur-Campbell-Williamson-Rebraca) who were able to beat Shaq and the Lakers. 
This year? It is more of the same. Two teams (the Pistons and Spurs) with scads of big men, battling for the area around the basket. 
If the Mavs want to win a title, where are they? On their list of rugged big men, they have Dampier. Nowitzki and Van Horn help a bit. But since they lack the elite center, they need much more, if they want to some day be able to hold their own game after game through the grind of the playoffs and emerge with a title. 
YOU ALWAYS NEED MORE 
The Detroit Pistons under Larry Brown have been one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference and noted for their physical play, especially in the interior. Going into 03-04, they had an all-NBA center in Ben Wallace, complemented by a whole slew of valued big men: Mehmet Okur, Zeljko Rebraca, and Corliss Williamson, along with highly touted rookie Darco Milicic. Nevertheless, in the summer of 03, they added veteran big man Elden Campbell to the mix. Then at the trading deadline, they added another big man in Rasheed Wallace. Wallace became the starter at PF, Campbell played some key minutes against Shaquille O'Neal in the playoffs, and the Pistons won a title. 
After the season ended, they lost Okur and Rebraca to free agency, and Williamson was also traded. That left a returning core of Wallace-Wallace-Milicic-Campbell. Again they added another big man in free agency, Antonio McDyess. During the season, they traded away Campbell for guard help - and then reacquired him, even though he was going to be no higher than the 4th big man in the playoff rotation at best. In their playoff run to the Finals, McDyess has been the key backup big man, and Campbell contributed some nice minutes against Miami that allowed the Pistons to defeat the Heat and advance. 
The San Antonio Spurs won a title in 2003, and then big man David Robinson retired. They still had Tim Duncan, Kevin Willis, and Malik Rose. Yet they added inside big men Rasho Nesterovic and Robert Horry in free agency that summer. 
After the season ended, Willis was not retained, replaced by veteran Tony Massenburg. At the trade deadline, the Spurs were already at the top of the standings, yet traded for the Knicks starting center, Nazr Mohammed. Mohammed became the Spurs starter in the middle and has been a key component in the Spurs' playoff success this year. 
The one team that clearly has a dominant big man is the Miami Heat, with Shaquille O'Neal. In their quest for a title, who did GM Pat Riley (who won 6 titles with the Lakers) sign down the stretch? Backup big man Alonzo Mourning, to complement and bolster Shaq. 
Those that win titles understand the priority: you have to be strong enough near the basket, and deep enough in big men, to get through the playoffs and to win a title. Another big man always helps. 
WHY DOES BEING BIG-AND-GOOD WIN TITLES? 
We offer a few logical (maybe even ultra-obvious) ideas to explain the reason why success seems to follow teams that are good in their big man lineup: 
1. EASIER SHOTS. Dunks and layups are more reliable than jump shots. The team that has better big men will generally be able to get more easy shots, and at the same time prevent the other team from getting those same shots. 
2. REBOUNDS. Better big men will typically outrebound the other team, offering more possessions. In tight games, every edge is crucial. 
3. DEFENSE. A size disadvantage offers a natural handicap, both in man-to-man matchups and in help-defense, when everything can be funneled toward a shot-blocker or a stopper. 
THE PHOENIX SUNS' EXAMPLE 
Many have cited the Suns as the team that is disproving the NBA's long-accepted axiom that "big and good is better than small and good." Local opinion-maker Randy Galloway recently wrote that the Mavs abandoned SmallBall too soon, while teams like Phoenix are heading the other way into the future. But are they? 
The Suns effectively played all year without a center, utilizing a lineup with PF Stoudemire playing C, SF Marion playing PF, SGs Richardson and Johnson playing SF and SG, and PG Nash. The top backup was SG Jackson. The team led the league in wins in 2004-05 and won 8 of 10 games in the first two rounds of the playoffs. 
Then they ran into the big-and-good San Antonio Spurs in the playoffs - and were handily dispatched in 5 games. But of greater interest is the following fact: in those 5 games, the Suns regularly replaced one of their SGs with seldom used backup center Steven Hunter, who rarely played in the regular season, with surprisingly effective results. Hunter, who only played 20 minutes or more in 12 games all year, played 30 minutes in two of the 5 games against the Spurs, and averaged over 20 minutes per game in that series. For those who like +/- stats, in the 90 minutes Hunter played in the Suns' 4 losses in that series, the Suns were +14 when he was on the floor, and -40 when he sat. 
Small and good can beat ordinary teams in the regular season, but the Suns found out (just like the Mavs, Kings, and so many teams before them) that the playoffs ultimately favor the team that can win the middle. Since their success in 2002-03, the Mavs have abandoned the small ball concept and moved toward a more traditional game with a stronger presence on the inside. Will the Suns, touted as "revolutionary" in their small ball attack, soon follow? 
As we’ve said a few times before, our prediction is that someday, the Suns will seek to sign a player kind of like. ... Erick Dampier. 
GOING BIG IS NOT CHEAP 
Lots of Mavs fans have had sticker shock over the price paid for Erick Dampier. But it may surprise many to find out that, when it comes to the NBA's going rate for centers, Dampier doesn't seem to be overpaid at all. 
Following up on a discussion at dallas-mavs.com and a list compiled by “jthig32’’ there of all the players that averaged 8 points and 8 rebounds in 2004-05, we wondered how many of those players are centers, and how much those centers are paid for that level of production. 
We used the salary lists floating around the net that generally are said to be accurate, and our knowledge of how teams use their various players, and added that info to the list. Here's what we found: other than players who are on rookie contracts (RC) - for whom the salary is solely determined by their draft position and not their play - effective big man help is expensive in the NBA. 
Here is the list of all players who produced the aforementioned 8ppg/8rpg this year, along with their position and salary: 
POS.....NAME .......SALARY 2004-05
C .......Shaquille O'Neal ...27.7
PF .....Chris Webber ...17.5
PF .....Kevin Garnett ...16.0
PF .....Jermaine O'Neal ...14.8
PF .....Antoine Walker ...14.6
C .......Zydrunas Ilgauskas ...14.6
C/PF ..Tim Duncan ...14.3
PF .....Dirk Nowitzki ...12.6
PF .....Elton Brand ...12.1
SF(PF) ..Shawn Marion ...11.3
PF .....Carlos Boozer ...11.0
PF .....Lamar Odom ...10.5
C/PF.. Rasheed Wallace ...9.7
C/PF.. Marcus Camby ...8.5
C .......Jamaal Magloire ...8.5
C/PF ..P.J. Brown ...8.0
C/PF ..Brad Miller ...7.9
C .......Erick Dampier ...7.7
C .......Ben Wallace ...7.0
C/PF.. Kurt Thomas ...5.9 
C/PF ..Emeka Okafor ...RC
PF .....Troy Murphy ...RC
C .......Dwight Howard ...RC
C/PF ..Tyson Chandler ...RC
PF .....Zach Randolph ...RC
PF .....Drew Gooden ...RC
PF .....Udonis Haslem ...RC
C/PF ..Amare Stoudemire ...RC
C/PF ..Chris Bosh ....RC
C .......Yao Ming ...RC 
If you remove the PF's from the list, and remove the players on rookie contracts, you get the following "price list" for veteran centers in the NBA who are putting up at least 8/8. When we look at this, it is obvious that Dampier isn't vastly overpaid at all, and may even be a bargain in the salary structure of the NBA: 
C .......Shaquille O'Neal ...27.7M
C .......Zydrunas Ilgauskas ...14.6
C/PF ..Tim Duncan ...14.3
C/PF ..Rasheed Wallace ...9.7
C/PF.. Marcus Camby ...8.5
C .......Jamaal Magloire ...8.5
C/PF.. P.J. Brown ...8.0
C/PF.. Brad Miller ...7.9
C .......Erick Dampier ...7.7
C....... Ben Wallace ...7.0
C/PF.. Kurt Thomas ...5.9 
From that list, it is obvious that Ben Wallace is quite underpaid. Other than him, among guys that are producing, Dampier's deal is cheaper than anyone else's except Kurt Thomas (who is 3 years older, 3 inches shorter and 40 pounds lighter). 
So what's the problem? In fairness, there might be problems to argue about in the fourth or fifth or seventh year of Damp’s $70-mil deal. But in terms of bang-for buck in the 2004-05 season, Dampier’s salary was VERY MUCH in line with others in the very exclusive club of productive centers. 
HOW ABOUT THE MAVS? 
From what we have discussed above, you have to have big men. Do the Mavs need to get rid of Dampier and his contract, as The Morning News’ Eddie Sefko wrote recently? 
Not hardly. As we learned above, he is paid about what it costs for one of those big guys (or maybe even a bit less), and he is already here. The problem isn’t his presence - it is that the Mavs need more of his ilk. 
In what was overlooked as just another transaction, the Mavs did make a trading deadline move for a backup player who is oft regarded as "just a shooter" but is big enough to offer some help inside at C/PF, Keith Van Horn. He isn't the prototypical "big man," but at 6-10 he is definitely big enough to help. In a world without injuries and fouls, a Dampier/Nowitzki/Van Horn trio would be enough to beat most teams. Unfortunately in the playoffs this year, Van Horn was hurt and Dampier was saddled with foul troubles, and what was behind that trio wasn't good enough. 
So what are the options? An easy choice might be to re-sign Alan Henderson, who regularly provided gritty minutes and veteran knowledge of the game, along with an attitude that allowed the team to play him irregular minutes. It wouldn't hurt to bring him back in the same sort of role. 
Beyond that, however, there still needs to be more - especially at center. Dampier certainly is a capable center when he is on the floor, but he was the only one the team felt capable of using in the playoffs. Bradley, Podkolzin, and Mbenga all are listed as backup centers, but none contributed in the playoffs, and the team needs someone other than PFs Nowitzki, Van Horn, and Henderson that they can rely on when they need another big man on the court. 
Will one of the 3 backups on the roster (Bradley, Podkolzin, and Mbenga) be capable of stepping up this fall? If not, just like the teams that are playing for a title these days, the Mavs need to go get another big man - not to REPLACE all the guys that are already playing, but to ADD to them. 
In at least one sense, the Mavs are no different than those other contenders: when it comes to big men, you always can use one more.

metzelder21 发表于 2005-6-19 04:06:00

很正常..篮球是巨人的运动

页: [1]

中国德迷联盟 - GerFans.cn 's Archiver

[翻译][转帖]“大个儿”谎言