德州三强纷纷改善内线火箭西部称霸先压倒小牛

345543z 发表于 2005-7-22 11:19:04

记者朱正光报道　火箭欲霸西部，必先在得州三强中突围。从今夏得州三强的引援及人员整合来看，卫冕冠军马刺依旧领先，火箭得到25岁的大前锋斯威夫特，而小牛中锋布拉德利退役，并可能裁掉忠臣芬利，这让火箭看到了新赛季超越小牛的希望。
　　西南赛区除得州三强外，还有人见人欺的黄蜂及灰熊，由于火箭挖来的斯威夫特正是灰熊内线大将，灰熊后卫威尔斯和沃特森也可能被其他球队挖走，灰熊与火箭的实力差距有望拉大?火箭在西南赛区的劲敌只有得州其他两强。上赛季季后赛首轮淘汰火箭的也正是小牛。
　　拥有麦迪和姚明后，火箭所需的就是对阵容进行修补。尽管2000年那一届的新秀整体水平不高，但榜眼斯威夫特爆发力强，能抢篮板，善于盖帽，他的加盟能缓解姚明在内线的压力。斯威夫特上赛季只有14次作为主力出战，过去5年平均每场贡献9.0分5.0个篮板1.5次盖帽。
　　火箭囤积实力，小牛却因超过4950万美元的薪金上限近4000万美元工资，不得不裁员及寻找更廉价的球员。中锋布莱德利已退役，为躲避“奢侈税”，他们极可能裁掉老将芬利——这让球员的忠诚度受到打击，使前锋阿兰·亨德森和后卫达雷尔·阿姆斯特朗离队。
　　小牛的目标是超音速大前锋雷吉·埃文斯、太阳队替补中锋斯蒂文·亨特以及勇士队大前锋、2002年第5号新秀斯基蒂什维利。21日有消息说骑士愿意用大前锋古登交换小牛两名组织后卫特里和德文·哈里斯之间的一位。
　　卫冕冠军马刺挽留住射手霍里和替补后卫德文·布朗，同时引进阿根廷国家队中锋奥本托，实力更进一步。自“海军上将”罗宾逊退役后，马刺一直缺乏优秀中锋，2.08米的奥本托有助缓解邓肯在内线的压力，不过，奥本托的罚球比邓肯更差。马刺还希望能以另一名中锋涅斯特洛维奇从超音速交换得到射手大前锋拉德马诺维奇。

Irkie 发表于 2005-7-22 12:48:00

虽然是很危险，不进则退，可他们是不是真以为小牛打算裁完人就赤膊上阵呢？以为别人都不懂不进则退的道理？体坛最近是活腻味了。

永远的轰炸机 发表于 2005-7-22 13:20:00

库班个傻子，钱多不会用，偶尔还吝啬一下，结果挨掉纳什一个响亮的耳光。

代斯勒 发表于 2005-7-22 13:42:00

阅

这个冬天不太冷 发表于 2005-7-22 13:48:00

斯威夫特终于来了

Irkie 发表于 2005-7-22 15:15:00

<DIV class=quote>以下是引用永远的轰炸机在2005-7-22 13:20:00的发言：
库班个傻子，钱多不会用，偶尔还吝啬一下，结果挨掉纳什一个响亮的耳光。</DIV>
耳光再响只要没拿到总冠军就没谁是最后赢家。
刚看到一个：
NASH：质疑MVP

想上赛季，NASH在小牛撑死也是排在德国司机后的第2号小牛人物，而本赛季这个小个子白人摇身一变，拿到了常规赛MVP的头衔和无数好评。而更重要的，他的助攻盘活了整个上赛季还萎靡不镇的太阳，让太阳坐上常规赛老大的宝座。那个小日子过得滋润得啊，想必能让库班后悔得吃不下去饭，让太阳老板在门后面笑得牙疼，让小牛的球迷欲哭无泪，让太阳的球迷惊声尖叫。
NASH的表现大家都看在眼里，所以我也就不多说了，无论是他的精妙的助攻，还是适时的得分，都让我也无可挑剔。我想在这里说的，不是别的，正是把矛头指向了他怀里那座MVP奖杯。请大家镇定，我不会无缘无故的生起这个邪念的，我是有根据和理由滴。
其实本赛季的MVP的归属，也是老早就有很有不同的声音，而风头最劲的，莫过于大鲨鱼和NASH。最后，大鲨鱼以史上最相近的票数惜败，事后有很多球迷也站出来说，大鲨鱼才应该是真正的MVP。很不好意思的是，这其中就有本人。
首先我们先搞清楚什么是MVP，MVP是最有价值球员的英文缩写。什么是最有价值？我以为最有价值就是球队没你不行，可见你在球队里的价值了吧。想必很多人也会同样我的这个说法的。那好我们再来看看，到底NASH和鲨鱼两个人，到底谁才是求最最不或缺的那个人。
NASH确实是厉害，他去了太阳，太阳就立即脱胎换骨般的重生了。哪里有上赛季那种烂队的影子了？太阳少了他根本就不能流动起来，没有他，小斯怎么有好机会去扣篮，马里昂怎么能一再的展示他难看至极的投篮动作？从这点来说，我佩服NASH，是他盘活整个球队的进攻，使得太阳的小球战术打的那么成功，不能不说他功不可没。但是我们有必要看看失去NASH的小牛队。平心而论，小牛这个赛季打得不算差，甚至还有进步。失去了NASH他们的成绩也是只升不降，这你又能做何解释，只能说，小牛的生意也是划算的。难道你能说小牛今年如果有NASH，就能更进一步？开什么玩笑，小牛已经走得够远的了，血洗火箭也是情理之中。有了NASH他们不见得就能成为西部冠军。因此，NASH至少对小牛，并不是那么那么重要，少了他小牛更能有新动作！
反观鲨鱼，热火被他带进了东部总决赛，WADE在他的羽翼下迅速成长，热火常规赛也是东部的NO。1。从对新东家的贡献方面来说，NASH和鲨鱼可以说是打成了平手。可以忽略不计了。而鲨鱼的旧东家湖人队呢，湖人连季候赛都没摸到门边~！（写湖人的惨让我痛苦啊，但是有必要客观些）湖人丢了鲨鱼立即就瘫痪了！虽然我更愿意相信是湖人内部磨和的问题所在，但是鲨鱼的离开也是很重要的原因！湖人失去了鲨鱼带来了本赛季的重创，而鲨鱼在迈阿密那里还悠哉悠哉呢。从老东家失去其之后的状况来看，这方面，鲨鱼无疑是占了绝对优势的。他可以在湖人面前骄傲的昂着头说我离开了你们就不行，而NASH还没够格，想必他也讲不出来。
这就是大家看在眼里的事实，鲨鱼给新东家带来好运气，给旧东家扔去了垃圾以视蔑视。而NASH只能在新东家这里风光风光，老东家那边，撑死也就是让人眼红眼红（对于那些没主见的球迷而言）罢了。理性点说，在分析完这些之后，我会选我很讨厌的鲨鱼一票MVP。虽然我不喜欢他与科比闹的矛盾，也不喜欢他本人，但是我清楚的看见鲨鱼给热火带来的惊喜，给湖人带来的伤口。而小牛的重建明显更为成功：德国司机已经开始有领袖气质了，新人也成长得迅速，整个小牛在往好的方面发展，而湖人我就不说了。
质疑NASH的MVP，无私心在里面。因为我不喜欢鲨鱼。但是冷静的看看事实，你会发现，这样的质疑，并不是毫无根据的，也不是毫无意义的。
质疑归质疑，MVP奖杯都被人家捧回家了，说这个也无非是消遣一下，无非是说说NASH。NASH是个伟大的球员，但是他未必是那个最有价值的。世界的事情，总是不能达到每个人都满意的地步，因此决定了我的质疑，也只能是质疑而已。
[此贴子已经被作者于2005-7-22 15:16:53编辑过]

克尼马 发表于 2005-7-22 15:36:00

笑到最后吧

这个冬天不太冷 发表于 2005-7-22 23:01:00

马刺就是太稳定，受不了。火箭什么时候也稳定中爆发一次就宽了心了

lillian 发表于 2005-7-22 23:26:00

死啦~~~斯基不就一个人独撑

泡妞小天王 发表于 2005-7-23 07:08:00

<DIV class=quote>以下是引用这个冬天不太冷在2005-7-22 23:01:00的发言：

马刺就是太稳定，受不了。
火箭什么时候也稳定中爆发一次就宽了心了</DIV>

345543z 发表于 2005-7-24 22:21:00

小牛内线会输给火箭吗？

这个冬天不太冷 发表于 2005-7-25 13:01:00

不会吗？

慕尼黑之恋 发表于 2005-7-25 23:05:00

体坛真能YY

永远的轰炸机 发表于 2005-7-26 13:36:00

<DIV class=quote>以下是引用Irkie在2005-7-22 15:15:00的发言：
耳光再响只要没拿到总冠军就没谁是最后赢家。
刚看到一个：
>NASH：质疑MVP

想上赛季，NASH在小牛撑死也是排在德国司机后的第2号小牛人物，而本赛季这个小个子白人摇身一变，拿到了常规赛MVP的头衔和无数好评。而更重要的，他的助攻盘活了整个上赛季还萎靡不镇的太阳，让太阳坐上常规赛老大的宝座。那个小日子过得滋润得啊，想必能让库班后悔得吃不下去饭，让太阳老板在门后面笑得牙疼，让小牛的球迷欲哭无泪，让太阳的球迷惊声尖叫。
NASH的表现大家都看在眼里，所以我也就不多说了，无论是他的精妙的助攻，还是适时的得分，都让我也无可挑剔。我想在这里说的，不是别的，正是把矛头指向了他怀里那座MVP奖杯。请大家镇定，我不会无缘无故的生起这个邪念的，我是有根据和理由滴。
其实本赛季的MVP的归属，也是老早就有很有不同的声音，而风头最劲的，莫过于大鲨鱼和NASH。最后，大鲨鱼以史上最相近的票数惜败，事后有很多球迷也站出来说，大鲨鱼才应该是真正的MVP。很不好意思的是，这其中就有本人。
首先我们先搞清楚什么是MVP，MVP是最有价值球员的英文缩写。什么是最有价值？我以为最有价值就是球队没你不行，可见你在球队里的价值了吧。想必很多人也会同样我的这个说法的。那好我们再来看看，到底NASH和鲨鱼两个人，到底谁才是求最最不或缺的那个人。
NASH确实是厉害，他去了太阳，太阳就立即脱胎换骨般的重生了。哪里有上赛季那种烂队的影子了？太阳少了他根本就不能流动起来，没有他，小斯怎么有好机会去扣篮，马里昂怎么能一再的展示他难看至极的投篮动作？从这点来说，我佩服NASH，是他盘活整个球队的进攻，使得太阳的小球战术打的那么成功，不能不说他功不可没。但是我们有必要看看失去NASH的小牛队。平心而论，小牛这个赛季打得不算差，甚至还有进步。失去了NASH他们的成绩也是只升不降，这你又能做何解释，只能说，小牛的生意也是划算的。难道你能说小牛今年如果有NASH，就能更进一步？开什么玩笑，小牛已经走得够远的了，血洗火箭也是情理之中。有了NASH他们不见得就能成为西部冠军。因此，NASH至少对小牛，并不是那么那么重要，少了他小牛更能有新动作！
反观鲨鱼，热火被他带进了东部总决赛，WADE在他的羽翼下迅速成长，热火常规赛也是东部的NO。1。从对新东家的贡献方面来说，NASH和鲨鱼可以说是打成了平手。可以忽略不计了。而鲨鱼的旧东家湖人队呢，湖人连季候赛都没摸到门边~！（写湖人的惨让我痛苦啊，但是有必要客观些）湖人丢了鲨鱼立即就瘫痪了！虽然我更愿意相信是湖人内部磨和的问题所在，但是鲨鱼的离开也是很重要的原因！湖人失去了鲨鱼带来了本赛季的重创，而鲨鱼在迈阿密那里还悠哉悠哉呢。从老东家失去其之后的状况来看，这方面，鲨鱼无疑是占了绝对优势的。他可以在湖人面前骄傲的昂着头说我离开了你们就不行，而NASH还没够格，想必他也讲不出来。
这就是大家看在眼里的事实，鲨鱼给新东家带来好运气，给旧东家扔去了**以视蔑视。而NASH只能在新东家这里风光风光，老东家那边，撑死也就是让人眼红眼红（对于那些没主见的球迷而言）罢了。理性点说，在分析完这些之后，我会选我很讨厌的鲨鱼一票MVP。虽然我不喜欢他与科比闹的矛盾，也不喜欢他本人，但是我清楚的看见鲨鱼给热火带来的惊喜，给湖人带来的伤口。而小牛的重建明显更为成功：德国司机已经开始有领袖气质了，新人也成长得迅速，整个小牛在往好的方面发展，而湖人我就不说了。
质疑NASH的MVP，无私心在里面。因为我不喜欢鲨鱼。但是冷静的看看事实，你会发现，这样的质疑，并不是毫无根据的，也不是毫无意义的。
质疑归质疑，MVP奖杯都被人家捧回家了，说这个也无非是消遣一下，无非是说说NASH。NASH是个伟大的球员，但是他未必是那个最有价值的。世界的事情，总是不能达到每个人都满意的地步，因此决定了我的质疑，也只能是质疑而已。</DIV>
湖人成绩一落千丈不仅仅是大鲨鱼的离开，另外两大天王马龙佩顿也相继离开，包括指教队伍几年的禅师也走了。新来的奥多姆长期养伤，其他的经过大换血都是新面孔，这样的球队成绩不差才叫怪，但绝非鲨鱼一人“功劳”。
小牛除了纳什主力阵容基本没变，老尼虽然退居二线但也经常在背后指点小将军，成绩变化不大也是很正常的。
常规赛两人同样出色，但是季后赛大鲨鱼老态凸线，遇到硬点的内线就大失水准，热队核心俨然是韦德。而纳什可以在老东家身上取走58分，虽然那场输了，不过最终还是淘汰了老东家给上库班一耳光。毕竟他不是自己想走的。
[此贴子已经被作者于2005-7-26 13:48:18编辑过]

Irkie 发表于 2005-7-26 14:37:00

想不想走无从推测也无所了如今，至少第一天就走也显不出什么留下的诚意。老尼指点AJ？虽然他仍是“顾问”，事实上并不过问，头衔而已，垂帘听政迟早要遭到反抗。转那个帖并非要质疑什么毕竟我是支持那谁当选MVP的，可有些话非得旁观者说出来才显得更客观，哪怕只是显得。相比之下，那个帖子的理论算非常规的，楼上的是常规的，只是那个帖子说得那些有点儿偏激，润色下就能更有理了。就好像下面这篇旧文章，全面、详尽地分析了可能影响MVP评选的各种因素，但我还是不很赞同其中的一些观点和结论，从题目就开始不赞同。另外，如果这些分析出自别处媒体，就会显得更有说服力了。Nash的事儿有myths，可评委是人，谁不喜欢？很难抗拒，毕竟difference maker一条太重要了，足以掩盖myths。要是提到NY，更是双向作用，虽然暴露了太阳去年的失误，今年的战绩差异却可以使利益归于Nash。Dirk（其实我不觉得他是最合适人选）在文中提到的受益点上并不是很受益，deeper不等于better，但是没有来自第二、三星的稳定支援也可以变成不利——板凳深度（即使长期受伤病困扰），所以孤星一条也是双向的。当然，没有了Nash的牛仍然保持了至少是上个赛季的水准，这一点有利于Dirk，不过必须强调态度，否则板凳深度又将起负面作用——必须强调补充进来的人在来牛之初甚至直到现在受到多大怀疑，免得有人这时拿Damp和Stack是stars来说事儿，要强调当初他们是怎么被人说成不合适、拼合同、廉颇老矣，外加PG一条，Jet怎能和如日中天的Nash相比，凸现Dirk本赛季的存活跟进步。<DIV class=quote>Dirk\'s The MVP Stat Study Gives Nod To Mav Nowitzki By David Lord -- DallasBasketball.com The NBA’s voting for its Most Valuable Player award each year is based on the regular season play alone. With the arrival of April, each team is down to its last ten games or so, and we sat down to take a glance around the league at the favorites for this year’s top player trophy. From crunching the numbers and the other factors that merit a designation as “most valuable,’’ we ended up with the following surprising conclusion: Dirk Nowitzki merits the MVP award this year. He isn’t merely one of many logical choices - he instead is the choice, and deserves the crown. If voters look at the same factors we looked at, Dirk should and will win. Here’s how we narrowed the field, separated hype from substance, analyzed the numbers and came to our conclusion: NARROWING THE CHOICES In analyzing the MVP candidates, we started first with the process of elimination, to make the task easier. There are approximately 450 players in the NBA, but when looking for an MVP, history tells us that (barring extreme circumstances) we can quickly narrow the field down to a half dozen players or less. Gaudy stats on a losing team - or even on a borderline playoff team - are dismissed with the concept that personal excellence only matters if it leads a team to the top echelon in the standings. (Too bad, Kevin Garnett, LeBron James, and Allen Iverson.) So we look at the top teams, and from those top teams we pick out the outstanding players, and look at what they have contributed towards producing a winner. Using that standard, the top half dozen teams would be Phoenix, San Antonio, Seattle, and Dallas in the West, and Miami and Detroit in the East. Below those are other teams that have won lots of games this year, but frankly no players on those lower playoff teams have had a year so incredible that it will inspire voters to deem them this year’s MVP. With a nod to teamwork and defense, there is no player on Detroit that merits the award. We also eliminated Seattle’s Ray Allen because the Sonics team is sliding down the homestretch - when voters will be making decisions. We also believe that though Allen is an All-Star and the Sonic team leader, his play has not been dominant enough to merit an MVP selection. That leaves us with the stars of 4 teams to consider. The MVP candidates from Phoenix would be Steve Nash, with Amare Stoudemire and Shawn Marion also deserving a look. From San Antonio, Tim Duncan is the man, though the subtle All-Star level contributions of Manu Ginobili have been a big factor in the Spurs success this year. In Miami, the obvious choice is Shaquille O’Neal, but a look has to be given to the contributions of Dwyane Wade. In Dallas, the lone star this year has been Dirk Nowitzki. We will take time to look at the contributions of Stoudemire, Marion, Ginobili, and Wade in our analysis, but the MVP award will not go to any of them, because for one reason or another they are outshined by a player on their own team and therefore can’t win. Thus our finalists are Nash, Nowitzki, Duncan, and O’Neal. LOOKING AT STATS AND COMBINED STATS Though it isn’t the only factor, big numbers on the stats sheets are needed to drive a player’s candidacy for MVP. No matter how valuable a player is, voters will tend to grade him lower if his stats don’t measure up to the stats of the other viable candidates. Which numbers matter the most? It’s hard to say, but in general a player must have something that a voter can use to justify that “this guy was the best.’’ All the finalists here have stats that in one way or another look good on their resume. Some have more than others. In looking at the numbers, it makes sense to also consider “combined numbers’’ -- ie, various rankings of NBA players by the basketball stat gurus that do their best to quantify what matters and who excels on a basketball court. For the purposes of this analysis, to varying degrees we contacted, consulted with, and used combined numbers created by the following NBA experts: Dean Oliver, Dan Rosenbaum, Roland Beech, Ed Kupfer, John Hollinger. If you are a basketball stat junkie and are not familiar with the work of these incredible number crunchers, we encourage you to check them out: you will be amazed at the breadth and depth of their analyses. Summary of stats info. In discussing the stats, it needs to be mentioned that in the final analysis of the voters, almost all of the stat details noted below will be tossed aside. Only the most general and obvious stat data will be looked at. Thus, if a player scored 23 ppg or 21 ppg, the difference looks so minor on a summary sheet that it will get glossed over. The distinctions between whether a player is 3rd or 5th or 12th or whatever in rebounding probably will go unnoticed, if the stats sorta look alike. It isn’t particularly fair, but that’s how the system works. So what will emerge will be snippets of qualifications, with a few supporting stats that seem to glitter. Nash will be credited with being the leader of the top team in the league, and for leading the league in assists. Then it will give his averages for points (16), rebounds (3.4), and assists (11.5). Dirk’s resume will mention that he is 3rd in scoring, and that he uniquely is in the top 10 in the NBA this season in both points and rebounds. Perhaps it will note he is 2nd in Efficiency. Then it will give his averages for points (27), rebounds (10.1), and blocks (1.5). Regarding Duncan we will hear that he is the reason the Spurs win so much, and his scoring (21), rebounds (11.4), and blocks (2.7) will be noted. Shaq will get credit for the Heat’s dominance in the East, and his averages in points (23), rebounds (10.5), and blocks (2.4). The voter looking at that list who likes passing and assists will vote for Nash. Dirk’s scoring will give him a clear lead for voters who like scoring. The voters for the rebound-blocks work of a big man will probably favor Duncan, who leads Shaq and Dirk in both categories. For those who want more details and analyses, here is a closer look at how these players stack up by the numbers. Steve Nash. From a pure statistical standpoint, Nash is far and away the least qualified of our 4 finalists. The one major stat category in which he is in the top 35 for the year is assists, where he is first - but it has to be noted that some of the credit on each assist has to go to the player who makes the shot rather than misses it. He also ranks in the top echelon in shooting accuracy categories (FG% - 11th, 3-pt % - 7th, FT % - 8th). On the downside, he is 7th in the “most turnovers’’ list. Nash’s flaw is defense, and the stats confirm that. He appears nowhere in the top 50 in any of the defensive-oriented categories (steals, blocks, defensive rebounds), and his reputation on the defensive end is less than stellar. In the combined stat systems, Nash comes out better in general, though he is still overshadowed by the other 3 finalists in every ranking. The NBA’s ranking of Player Efficiency has him at 14th. Hollinger’s PER puts him at 21st, and he is 9th in the PER+ rankings. Rosenbaum’s DanVal ranking has him no higher than 10th. Meanwhile, the other 3 finalists are all in the top 10 in every one of those player ranking systems for their play this season. Oliver’s rankings, as outlined in his Basketball on Paper and which are proprietary to the Sonics, is unavailable to the public - but using the criteria of that highly regarded system, Nash ranks at the bottom among the 4 finalists. But there is one other stat where Nash ranks at the top, and its impact on the voting can’t be overlooked. The Suns have the NBA’s best record, and that likely will be the case when the season ends. As the acknowledged team leader on the #1 team, Nash will earn mental bonus points in the minds of the voters. Dirk Nowitzki. This season, Dirk’s game has improved greatly across the board, and the numbers reflect that. In every way imaginable, Dirk’s numbers are MVP-worthy. Dirk is 3rd in scoring which is tops among the finalists. He is the only player in the NBA in the top 10 in both scoring and rebounding (9th). Nowitzki’s defense, formerly a weak point, now shows up positively in the stats. He is one of only 3 players in the league who ranks in the top 30 in both steals and rebounds (Garnett and Marion are the other two), and his defensive rebounding numbers are 2nd in the league. Dirk now is a significant factor in getting the ball back - he is much more than a scorer. Not surprisingly, Dirk’s place in combined stat systems ranks right near the top. The NBA Efficiency rankings have him 2nd overall, highest of the finalists. Hollinger’s PER+ has him 2nd. Oliver ranks him in a dead heat with Duncan for #1 overall. Rosenbaum has Dirk 3rd overall, trailing Duncan but ahead of O’Neal and Nash. The only stat that might hurt Nowitzki’s MVP candidacy is the Mavs record, which is 5th in the league at the moment. We think that a winning streak from now til season’s end might allow the Mavs to overtake the Spurs for 2nd in the West - and it also might be the difference between a Dirk win or an also-ran finish in the MVP voting. Tim Duncan. For several years Duncan has arguably been regarded as the best player in the league, and his production this year is as good as ever. His scoring is solid at 19th, and he is an inside force in both rebounds (3rd) and blocks (3rd). In the combined stats, Duncan is tied for 5th in NBA Efficiency. He is 1st in PER+. Rosenbaum has him 1st overall, and the Oliver system has him in a dead heat with Dirk for 1st among the finalists here.

The Spurs have been at or near the top of the league all year. With Duncan out they have slid to 3rd, but are still right on the cusp of the best record. Since their slide has been due to Duncan’s absence, he will still get some credit for being the best player on arguably the best team. Shaquille O’Neal. Shaq has always put up incredibly strong numbers each year, and this year is no exception. His scoring is strong (12th), and he is still a force in the middle (6th in blocks and rebounds). In the combined stats, Shaq is 8th in NBA Efficiency. He is 5th in PER+. Rosenbaum has him trailing Duncan and Dirk at 4th overall, and the Oliver system has him 3rd among these 4 finalists. Miami has been the dominant team in the East all year, and their record is in the top echelon with Phoenix and San Antonio. Also, the Lakers’ losing record this year without him - after going to the Finals last year with him - will underscore his value to voters. He was replaced by 3 good players, and the Lakers won’t make the playoffs without him. Stoudemire, Marion, Ginobili, and Wade. We have dismissed these four because their candidacy is (in our view) overshadowed by another player on their team. But each of them is a star on one of the top 3 teams in the league, and it is noteworthy how highly each ranks in the stats. Stoudemire is the young, high-flying inside force for the league-leading Suns and has been mentioned as MVP-worthy in some circles this year. He is 5th in scoring, 21st in rebounding, and 22nd in blocks. The NBA Efficiency rankings have him 4th, and PER+ ranks him 8th. He is the top player on the Suns, the league’s top team, in those combined stat systems. Marion is the do-it-all guy for those same Suns, and also has some support for the MVP award. He is 24th in scoring, 4th in rebounding, 4th in steals, and 22nd in blocks. He joins Dirk in the top 30 in the defensive trifecta of steals, blocks, and defensive rebounding (3rd). The NBA Efficiency rankings have him 5th, and PER+ ranks him 16th. Rosenbaum has him 2nd overall in the league, trailing only Duncan. His stat resume, with both offensive and defensive excellence showing, and with a #2 ranking by Rosenbaum, is the most glittering for any of the Suns. Wade is the Mr. Outside for Miami, to Shaq’s Mr. Inside, and is the driving force in crunch time that complements Shaq - with his ball-handling, shooting, and free throwing ability. He is 8th in both scoring and assists, is 11th in steals, and surprisingly he is 34th in blocks. The NBA Efficiency rankings have him 10th, and PER ranks him 5th (and 30th in the PER+ rankings). Ginobili is the do-it-all guy in San Antonio that complements Duncan, and the way he appears in the stats is interesting. In the individual categories, he is only 43rd in scoring, 41st in assists, and 8th in steals. The NBA Efficiency ranking has him at 45th. But when the stat gurus lend their expertise, he suddenly sails near the top. Hollinger’s PER has him tied for 6th, and in the PER+ ranks he is 3rd. Rosenbaum ranks him 5th in MVP-worthiness. Roland Beech’s statistical analysis of players’ production late in close games, called “Clutch PER,’’ ranks Ginobili as the best player in the NBA. Who gains most from the stats? Based on the numbers alone, there is rationale available to vote for each of the 4 finalists. Just from the stats above, let’s give Duncan 2 points (1 each for best big man stats, top tier team), Dirk 1.5 points (1 for best scorer, 0.5 for all-around stats excellence), Nash 1.5 points (1 for top tier team, 0.5 for assists), and Shaq 1.0 points (top tier team). But the stats aren’t the only factors. The numbers alone don’t decide the MVP award. Subjective intangibles always play a big part in the voting, and this year will be no different. THE SUBJECTIVE INTANGIBLES THAT SWAY VOTES Sympathy Votes. In some years the perception arises that a player’s excellence has been overlooked over the years and thus deserves extra consideration for an MVP award. By this standard, Karl Malone beat out Michael Jordan for the award in 1997, with the rationale being that “Jordan has already gotten his share of MVP honors.’’ Jordan was the league’s best player, had the best year, and played on the best team, but Malone took home the MVP award primarily because Jordan had been awarded 4 in prior years while Malone had none. This year the sympathy votes will go to Shaquille O’Neal. “He has been the dominant player in the league for many years but only has one MVP award to show for it - so we owe him one’’ is the thinking that has been expressed. Leadership. The vague concept of leadership will be mentioned, but among these four finalists it will not add or subtract a thing. Nash, Nowitzki, Duncan, and O’Neal are each considered to be the leader of their team and the key player that drives them to wins. Difference maker. If you take this player off this team, how far would they fall? Isn’t that the best measure of value, in deciding an MVP winner? You will hear that idea expressed in discussions about the MVP, and this year two players will benefit from it. Shaquille O’Neal was traded to Miami this year, for 3 good players. His addition has vaulted Miami to dominance in the East, despite losing those 3 players. Steve Nash signed with Phoenix as a free agent before this season, and the Suns have risen from mediocrity to become the top team in the league. In addition, Nash was injured during the season and missed 4 games in mid-January that the Suns lost, adding to the perception that he has been indispensable to the Suns success this year. Games missed. Getting injured and missing a sizable part of the season costs votes. How can a player be the most valuable, if he was not on the floor? Tim Duncan has battled ankle problems all year and only played 62 games. It appears he will miss the rest of the regular season, meaning his contribution will be limited to 75% of the Spurs’ games, and that will lower his chances in the MVP voting. Finishing the season strong. The MVP voting occurs as the season ends, and the freshest images in the voters minds are those from the last month of the season. Tim Duncan is off the floor. His value is noticed as the Spurs lose more frequently without him - but the fact that he is not playing also is underscored. Phoenix, Dallas, and Miami are all playing well. Myths. In every area of life, myths get spread that are not supported by facts. In voting, perception equals reality. Steve Nash’s MVP support this year will be bolstered by perception that is fueled by myth that has been recited repeatedly in the media. Nash joined a Suns team that won 29 games last year, a fact that is often cited. The assumption is that Nash made it into a big winner. What is overlooked? Quite a bit. Last year the Suns actually had a fairly good team - a team that had made the playoffs the prior year and was considered to be up and coming. But they ended up losing a ton of games for several factors. One was the loss of Stoudemire, who was hurt and missed a 1/3 of the season. Even more importantly, they pulled off a midseason trade that junked their season, sending their two primary ball handlers to NY to free up cap room, in exchange for next to nothing. Before Stoudemire’s injury and the trade, the Suns were a talented team, played at a .500 pace, and showed great potential. With first the loss of Stoudemire and then the loss of their ball handlers, their record didn’t reflect their talent. The return to health this year of Stoudemire, plus the addition of ANY credible ball-handler, was going to make them better no matter what. Furthermore, Nash was not Phoenix’ only addition in the offseason. The Suns also signed Quentin Richardson in free agency, whose numbers (averages of 15.4 pts, 6.2 rebs, 2.0 assists, 1.3 steals) have been as strong as those of Nash this year. The myth of Nash’s unmatchable value to Phoenix exploded into the media when he was injured in mid-January this year and the Suns lost 4 in a row without him. What is overlooked is that at the time they had also lost their backup PG to injury, so in Nash’s absence they were down to their 3rd option. Also, the games they lost were all against playoff teams, and 3 were on the road. Who gains most from the intangibles? We think it is valid to cast a vote factoring in intangibles such as leadership and games played, but we deplore the votes driven by sympathy and myths. In our view of the intangibles, we give Shaq 0.5 points for being a difference maker, and we subtract 0.5 points from Duncan for missing 1/4 of the season. If we are reflecting the real voting, we also have to add another 0.5 to Shaq for the sympathy factor and 0.5 to Nash for the myths that will influence voters. In the real voting, from what we have discussed to this point in both stats and intangibles, we see a slight edge towards Shaq and Nash. However, on our ballot, so far we would have essentially a 4-way tie. THE BIGGEST INTANGIBLE - WILL IT BE OVERLOOKED? There is one final factor that might get little discussion, yet to us should be near the top of the list. In making their team a winner, who had the least help? That factor, once included, forces us to our original premise: Lone Star Dirk should be the MVP this year. In Phoenix, Nash has been complemented by both Stoudemire and Marion - each of whom are so good that some think they rather than Nash should be the MVP for the entire league. Duncan has been accompanied by Ginobili, an all-star and one of the league’s best in every analysis. Shaq also has an all-NBA caliber running mate in the person of Wade. But Dirk? If you take a poll of fans and media as to the 2nd best player on the Mavs, you will find out quickly that there is no consensus whatsoever. His main help has varied from week to week, and even game to game. There are lots of contributors here and there - a cast of thousands, as the saying goes. But there is no second banana for Dirk to rely on each night. In former years in Dallas, there was a big 3 of Dirk, Nash, and Finley. This year, Nash is gone and Finley’s game has declined. In spite of that, the team has gotten even better: Dirk has put this team on his back, and overcome those losses. With the loss of Nash, the PGs who are needed to set up Dirk have been inexperienced - so Dirk has fueled the team while they learn. In fact, Dirk only has 2 players alongside him from the Dallas team that went to the Western Conference Finals 2 years ago - and instead of falling to the bottom, they are rising to the top. In Dallas, it isn’t a group of 2 or 3 players that has keyed this team’s ability to win - it is all about Dirk. Interestingly, the lesser ability of Dirk’s surrounding cast is a concept that is supported by the numbers. Beech’s +/- analysis measures the success of a team without a particular player on the floor, and is often overused. But an interesting number pops out at us. When Nash, Duncan, or Shaq sits, their team still plays about even with the opposition - meaning they would still be around a .500 team without them. When Dirk sits, the Mavs lose almost 10 points per 48 minutes - which would make them one of the worst teams in the league. OUR FINAL TALLY Any of our finalists may win the actual MVP award this year. But in our view, we think the facts should make it go as follows. Nash has had an outstanding year, but he plays no defense, and much of his resume is built on myth rather than fact. Duncan has been the best player on the team when he has played - but his missing 1/4 of the season drops the Spurs in the standings and drops him from the top as well. Shaq has made the Heat dominant in the East - but his stats aren’t as good as Duncan or Dirk, and his accomplishments this year are in the weaker conference. That leaves us with Lone Star Dirk as our choice. His ability to carry this team to the top without a 2nd star is the deciding factor in our minds. Behind Dirk, our ballot would read (in order) Shaq, Duncan, Nash. For others, Dirk’s one “flaw’’ on his resume will be the fact that the Mavs record is 5th in the league at this point. If the Mavs can fashion a long winning streak in April, and move up to a record near or better than the Spurs, the rest of the league may also agree that Lone Star Dirk is this season’s Most Valuable Player in the NBA. EDITORS NOTES: Dean Oliver is considered an authority in the application of statistical analysis to NBA issues and now works exclusively for the Seattle Sonics in analyzing NBA players and teams. His ideas and system are outlined in his book “Basketball On Paper.’’ <a href=\"http://www.basketballonpaper.com/\" target=\"_blank\" >BASKETBALL ON PAPER</A>Dan Rosenbaum is an economics professor at UNC--Greensboro and an NBA Players Assn consultant who is considered an authority in the application of statistical analysis to NBA issues such as cap issues and player rankings. <a href=\"http://www.uncg.edu/bae/people/rosenbaum/nba.html\" target=\"_blank\" >ROSENBAUM’S WORK</A>John Hollinger applies statistical analysis to player evaluation. His work can be found at: <a href=\"http://www.espn.com/\" target=\"_blank\" >ESPN.COM</A><a href=\"http://www.82games.com/\" target=\"_blank\" >82GAMES.COM</A>Roland Beech is the creator of many NBA analytical tools, including the Roland System that analyzes a player\'s plus-minus effect on a team. His work can be found at: <a href=\"http://www.82games.com/\" target=\"_blank\" >82GAMES.COM</A>Ed Kupfer analyzes NBA data and players. His site \"Brother Ed- Stats Pimp\" is currently unavailable to the public.</DIV>

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德州三强纷纷改善内线 火箭西部称霸先压倒小牛

德州三强纷纷改善内线火箭西部称霸先压倒小牛