< >想不想走无从推测也无所了如今，至少第一天就走也显不出什么留下的诚意。老尼指点AJ？虽然他仍是“顾问”，事实上并不过问，头衔而已，垂帘听政迟早要遭到反抗。转那个帖并非要质疑什么毕竟我是支持那谁当选MVP的，可有些话非得旁观者说出来才显得更客观，哪怕只是显得。相比之下，那个帖子的理论算非常规的，楼上的是常规的，只是那个帖子说得那些有点儿偏激，润色下就能更有理了。就好像下面这篇旧文章，全面、详尽地分析了可能影响MVP评选的各种因素，但我还是不很赞同其中的一些观点和结论，从题目就开始不赞同。另外，如果这些分析出自别处媒体，就会显得更有说服力了。</P><>Nash的事儿有myths，可评委是人，谁不喜欢？很难抗拒，毕竟difference maker一条太重要了，足以掩盖myths。要是提到NY，更是双向作用，虽然暴露了太阳去年的失误，今年的战绩差异却可以使利益归于Nash。</P><>Dirk（其实我不觉得他是最合适人选）在文中提到的受益点上并不是很受益，deeper不等于better，但是没有来自第二、三星的稳定支援也可以变成不利——板凳深度（即使长期受伤病困扰），所以孤星一条也是双向的。当然，没有了Nash的牛仍然保持了至少是上个赛季的水准，这一点有利于Dirk，不过必须强调态度，否则板凳深度又将起负面作用——必须强调补充进来的人在来牛之初甚至直到现在受到多大怀疑，免得有人这时拿Damp和Stack是stars来说事儿，要强调当初他们是怎么被人说成不合适、拼合同、廉颇老矣，外加PG一条，Jet怎能和如日中天的Nash相比，凸现Dirk本赛季的存活跟进步。</P><><DIV class=quote><B>Dirk\'s The MVP </B><><><B>Stat Study Gives Nod To Mav Nowitzki </B></P><>By David Lord -- DallasBasketball.com </P><>The NBA’s voting for its Most Valuable Player award each year is based on the regular season play alone. With the arrival of April, each team is down to its last ten games or so, and we sat down to take a glance around the league at the favorites for this year’s top player trophy. From crunching the numbers and the other factors that merit a designation as “most valuable,’’ we ended up with the following surprising conclusion: Dirk Nowitzki <B>merits</B> the MVP award this year. He isn’t merely one of many logical choices - he instead is the choice, and deserves the crown. If voters look at the same factors we looked at, Dirk should and will win. </P><>Here’s how we narrowed the field, separated hype from substance, analyzed the numbers and came to our conclusion: </P><><B>NARROWING THE CHOICES </B></P><P>In analyzing the MVP candidates, we started first with the process of elimination, to make the task easier. There are approximately 450 players in the NBA, but when looking for an MVP, history tells us that (barring extreme circumstances) we can quickly narrow the field down to a half dozen players or less. Gaudy stats on a losing team - or even on a borderline playoff team - are dismissed with the concept that personal excellence only matters if it leads a team to the top echelon in the standings. (Too bad, Kevin Garnett, LeBron James, and Allen Iverson.) So we look at the top teams, and from those top teams we pick out the outstanding players, and look at what they have contributed towards producing a winner. </P><P>Using that standard, the top half dozen teams would be Phoenix, San Antonio, Seattle, and Dallas in the West, and Miami and Detroit in the East. Below those are other teams that have won lots of games this year, but frankly no players on those lower playoff teams have had a year so incredible that it will inspire voters to deem them this year’s MVP. With a nod to teamwork and defense, there is no player on Detroit that merits the award. We also eliminated Seattle’s Ray Allen because the Sonics team is sliding down the homestretch - when voters will be making decisions. We also believe that though Allen is an All-Star and the Sonic team leader, his play has not been dominant enough to merit an MVP selection. That leaves us with the stars of 4 teams to consider. </P><P>The MVP candidates from Phoenix would be Steve Nash, with Amare Stoudemire and Shawn Marion also deserving a look. From San Antonio, Tim Duncan is the man, though the subtle All-Star level contributions of Manu Ginobili have been a big factor in the Spurs success this year. In Miami, the obvious choice is Shaquille O’Neal, but a look has to be given to the contributions of Dwyane Wade. In Dallas, the lone star this year has been Dirk Nowitzki. </P><P>We will take time to look at the contributions of Stoudemire, Marion, Ginobili, and Wade in our analysis, but the MVP award will not go to any of them, because for one reason or another they are outshined by a player on their own team and therefore can’t win. Thus our finalists are Nash, Nowitzki, Duncan, and O’Neal. </P><P><B>LOOKING AT STATS AND COMBINED STATS </B></P><P>Though it isn’t the only factor, big numbers on the stats sheets are needed to drive a player’s candidacy for MVP. No matter how valuable a player is, voters will tend to grade him lower if his stats don’t measure up to the stats of the other viable candidates. </P><P>Which numbers matter the most? It’s hard to say, but in general a player must have something that a voter can use to justify that “this guy was the best.’’ All the finalists here have stats that in one way or another look good on their resume. Some have more than others. </P><P>In looking at the numbers, it makes sense to also consider “combined numbers’’ -- ie, various rankings of NBA players by the basketball stat gurus that do their best to quantify what matters and who excels on a basketball court. For the purposes of this analysis, to varying degrees we contacted, consulted with, and used combined numbers created by the following NBA experts: Dean Oliver, Dan Rosenbaum, Roland Beech, Ed Kupfer, John Hollinger. If you are a basketball stat junkie and are not familiar with the work of these incredible number crunchers, we encourage you to check them out: you will be amazed at the breadth and depth of their analyses. </P><P><B>Summary of stats info.</B> In discussing the stats, it needs to be mentioned that in the final analysis of the voters, almost all of the stat details noted below will be tossed aside. Only the most general and obvious stat data will be looked at. </P><P>Thus, if a player scored 23 ppg or 21 ppg, the difference looks so minor on a summary sheet that it will get glossed over. The distinctions between whether a player is 3rd or 5th or 12th or whatever in rebounding probably will go unnoticed, if the stats sorta look alike. It isn’t particularly fair, but that’s how the system works. So what will emerge will be snippets of qualifications, with a few supporting stats that seem to glitter. </P><P>Nash will be credited with being the leader of the top team in the league, and for leading the league in assists. Then it will give his averages for points (16), rebounds (3.4), and assists (11.5). Dirk’s resume will mention that he is 3rd in scoring, and that he uniquely is in the top 10 in the NBA this season in both points and rebounds. Perhaps it will note he is 2nd in Efficiency. Then it will give his averages for points (27), rebounds (10.1), and blocks (1.5). Regarding Duncan we will hear that he is the reason the Spurs win so much, and his scoring (21), rebounds (11.4), and blocks (2.7) will be noted. Shaq will get credit for the Heat’s dominance in the East, and his averages in points (23), rebounds (10.5), and blocks (2.4). </P><P>The voter looking at that list who likes passing and assists will vote for Nash. Dirk’s scoring will give him a clear lead for voters who like scoring. The voters for the rebound-blocks work of a big man will probably favor Duncan, who leads Shaq and Dirk in both categories. </P><P>For those who want more details and analyses, here is a closer look at how these players stack up by the numbers. </P><P><B>Steve Nash.</B> From a pure statistical standpoint, Nash is far and away the least qualified of our 4 finalists. The one major stat category in which he is in the top 35 for the year is assists, where he is first - but it has to be noted that some of the credit on each assist has to go to the player who makes the shot rather than misses it. He also ranks in the top echelon in shooting accuracy categories (FG% - 11th, 3-pt % - 7th, FT % - 8th). On the downside, he is 7th in the “most turnovers’’ list. </P><P>Nash’s flaw is defense, and the stats confirm that. He appears nowhere in the top 50 in any of the defensive-oriented categories (steals, blocks, defensive rebounds), and his reputation on the defensive end is less than stellar. </P><P>In the combined stat systems, Nash comes out better in general, though he is still overshadowed by the other 3 finalists in every ranking. The NBA’s ranking of Player Efficiency has him at 14th. Hollinger’s PER puts him at 21st, and he is 9th in the PER+ rankings. Rosenbaum’s DanVal ranking has him no higher than 10th. Meanwhile, the other 3 finalists are all in the top 10 in every one of those player ranking systems for their play this season. Oliver’s rankings, as outlined in his Basketball on Paper and which are proprietary to the Sonics, is unavailable to the public - but using the criteria of that highly regarded system, Nash ranks at the bottom among the 4 finalists. </P><P>But there is one other stat where Nash ranks at the top, and its impact on the voting can’t be overlooked. The Suns have the NBA’s best record, and that likely will be the case when the season ends. As the acknowledged team leader on the #1 team, Nash will earn mental bonus points in the minds of the voters. </P><P><B>Dirk Nowitzki.</B> This season, Dirk’s game has improved greatly across the board, and the numbers reflect that. In every way imaginable, Dirk’s numbers are MVP-worthy. </P><P>Dirk is 3rd in scoring which is tops among the finalists. He is the only player in the NBA in the top 10 in both scoring and rebounding (9th). </P><P>Nowitzki’s defense, formerly a weak point, now shows up positively in the stats. He is one of only 3 players in the league who ranks in the top 30 in both steals and rebounds (Garnett and Marion are the other two), and his defensive rebounding numbers are 2nd in the league. Dirk now is a significant factor in getting the ball back - he is much more than a scorer. </P><P>Not surprisingly, Dirk’s place in combined stat systems ranks right near the top. The NBA Efficiency rankings have him 2nd overall, highest of the finalists. Hollinger’s PER+ has him 2nd. Oliver ranks him in a dead heat with Duncan for #1 overall. Rosenbaum has Dirk 3rd overall, trailing Duncan but ahead of O’Neal and Nash. </P><P>The only stat that might hurt Nowitzki’s MVP candidacy is the Mavs record, which is 5th in the league at the moment. We think that a winning streak from now til season’s end might allow the Mavs to overtake the Spurs for 2nd in the West - and it also might be the difference between a Dirk win or an also-ran finish in the MVP voting. </P><P><B>Tim Duncan.</B> For several years Duncan has arguably been regarded as the best player in the league, and his production this year is as good as ever. </P><P>His scoring is solid at 19th, and he is an inside force in both rebounds (3rd) and blocks (3rd). </P><P>In the combined stats, Duncan is tied for 5th in NBA Efficiency. He is 1st in PER+. Rosenbaum has him 1st overall, and the Oliver system has him in a dead heat with Dirk for 1st among the finalists here.
The Spurs have been at or near the top of the league all year. With Duncan out they have slid to 3rd, but are still right on the cusp of the best record. Since their slide has been due to Duncan’s absence, he will still get some credit for being the best player on arguably the best team. </P><P><B>Shaquille O’Neal.</B> Shaq has always put up incredibly strong numbers each year, and this year is no exception. </P><P>His scoring is strong (12th), and he is still a force in the middle (6th in blocks and rebounds). </P><P>In the combined stats, Shaq is 8th in NBA Efficiency. He is 5th in PER+. Rosenbaum has him trailing Duncan and Dirk at 4th overall, and the Oliver system has him 3rd among these 4 finalists. </P><P>Miami has been the dominant team in the East all year, and their record is in the top echelon with Phoenix and San Antonio. Also, the Lakers’ losing record this year without him - after going to the Finals last year with him - will underscore his value to voters. He was replaced by 3 good players, and the Lakers won’t make the playoffs without him. </P><P><B>Stoudemire, Marion, Ginobili, and Wade.</B> We have dismissed these four because their candidacy is (in our view) overshadowed by another player on their team. But each of them is a star on one of the top 3 teams in the league, and it is noteworthy how highly each ranks in the stats. </P><P>Stoudemire is the young, high-flying inside force for the league-leading Suns and has been mentioned as MVP-worthy in some circles this year. He is 5th in scoring, 21st in rebounding, and 22nd in blocks. The NBA Efficiency rankings have him 4th, and PER+ ranks him 8th. He is the top player on the Suns, the league’s top team, in those combined stat systems. </P><P>Marion is the do-it-all guy for those same Suns, and also has some support for the MVP award. He is 24th in scoring, 4th in rebounding, 4th in steals, and 22nd in blocks. He joins Dirk in the top 30 in the defensive trifecta of steals, blocks, and defensive rebounding (3rd). The NBA Efficiency rankings have him 5th, and PER+ ranks him 16th. Rosenbaum has him 2nd overall in the league, trailing only Duncan. His stat resume, with both offensive and defensive excellence showing, and with a #2 ranking by Rosenbaum, is the most glittering for any of the Suns. </P><P>Wade is the Mr. Outside for Miami, to Shaq’s Mr. Inside, and is the driving force in crunch time that complements Shaq - with his ball-handling, shooting, and free throwing ability. He is 8th in both scoring and assists, is 11th in steals, and surprisingly he is 34th in blocks. The NBA Efficiency rankings have him 10th, and PER ranks him 5th (and 30th in the PER+ rankings). </P><P>Ginobili is the do-it-all guy in San Antonio that complements Duncan, and the way he appears in the stats is interesting. In the individual categories, he is only 43rd in scoring, 41st in assists, and 8th in steals. The NBA Efficiency ranking has him at 45th. But when the stat gurus lend their expertise, he suddenly sails near the top. Hollinger’s PER has him tied for 6th, and in the PER+ ranks he is 3rd. Rosenbaum ranks him 5th in MVP-worthiness. Roland Beech’s statistical analysis of players’ production late in close games, called “Clutch PER,’’ ranks Ginobili as the best player in the NBA. </P><P><B>Who gains most from the stats?</B> Based on the numbers alone, there is rationale available to vote for each of the 4 finalists. Just from the stats above, let’s give Duncan 2 points (1 each for best big man stats, top tier team), Dirk 1.5 points (1 for best scorer, 0.5 for all-around stats excellence), Nash 1.5 points (1 for top tier team, 0.5 for assists), and Shaq 1.0 points (top tier team). </P><P>But the stats aren’t the only factors. The numbers alone don’t decide the MVP award. Subjective intangibles always play a big part in the voting, and this year will be no different. </P><P><B>THE SUBJECTIVE INTANGIBLES THAT SWAY VOTES </B></P><P><B>Sympathy Votes.</B> In some years the perception arises that a player’s excellence has been overlooked over the years and thus deserves extra consideration for an MVP award. By this standard, Karl Malone beat out Michael Jordan for the award in 1997, with the rationale being that “Jordan has already gotten his share of MVP honors.’’ Jordan was the league’s best player, had the best year, and played on the best team, but Malone took home the MVP award primarily because Jordan had been awarded 4 in prior years while Malone had none. </P><P>This year the sympathy votes will go to Shaquille O’Neal. “He has been the dominant player in the league for many years but only has one MVP award to show for it - so we owe him one’’ is the thinking that has been expressed. </P><P><B>Leadership.</B> The vague concept of leadership will be mentioned, but among these four finalists it will not add or subtract a thing. Nash, Nowitzki, Duncan, and O’Neal are each considered to be the leader of their team and the key player that drives them to wins. </P><P><B>Difference maker.</B> If you take this player off this team, how far would they fall? Isn’t that the best measure of value, in deciding an MVP winner? You will hear that idea expressed in discussions about the MVP, and this year two players will benefit from it. </P><P>Shaquille O’Neal was traded to Miami this year, for 3 good players. His addition has vaulted Miami to dominance in the East, despite losing those 3 players. </P><P>Steve Nash signed with Phoenix as a free agent before this season, and the Suns have risen from mediocrity to become the top team in the league. In addition, Nash was injured during the season and missed 4 games in mid-January that the Suns lost, adding to the perception that he has been indispensable to the Suns success this year. </P><P><B>Games missed.</B> Getting injured and missing a sizable part of the season costs votes. How can a player be the most valuable, if he was not on the floor? </P><P>Tim Duncan has battled ankle problems all year and only played 62 games. It appears he will miss the rest of the regular season, meaning his contribution will be limited to 75% of the Spurs’ games, and that will lower his chances in the MVP voting. </P><P><B>Finishing the season strong.</B> The MVP voting occurs as the season ends, and the freshest images in the voters minds are those from the last month of the season. </P><P>Tim Duncan is off the floor. His value is noticed as the Spurs lose more frequently without him - but the fact that he is not playing also is underscored. </P><P>Phoenix, Dallas, and Miami are all playing well. </P><P><B>Myths.</B> In every area of life, myths get spread that are not supported by facts. In voting, perception equals reality. Steve Nash’s MVP support this year will be bolstered by perception that is fueled by myth that has been recited repeatedly in the media. </P><P>Nash joined a Suns team that won 29 games last year, a fact that is often cited. The assumption is that Nash made it into a big winner. What is overlooked? Quite a bit. </P><P>Last year the Suns actually had a fairly good team - a team that had made the playoffs the prior year and was considered to be up and coming. But they ended up losing a ton of games for several factors. One was the loss of Stoudemire, who was hurt and missed a 1/3 of the season. Even more importantly, they pulled off a midseason trade that junked their season, sending their two primary ball handlers to NY to free up cap room, in exchange for next to nothing. Before Stoudemire’s injury and the trade, the Suns were a talented team, played at a .500 pace, and showed great potential. With first the loss of Stoudemire and then the loss of their ball handlers, their record didn’t reflect their talent. </P><P>The return to health this year of Stoudemire, plus the addition of ANY credible ball-handler, was going to make them better no matter what. </P><P>Furthermore, Nash was not Phoenix’ only addition in the offseason. The Suns also signed Quentin Richardson in free agency, whose numbers (averages of 15.4 pts, 6.2 rebs, 2.0 assists, 1.3 steals) have been as strong as those of Nash this year. </P><P>The myth of Nash’s unmatchable value to Phoenix exploded into the media when he was injured in mid-January this year and the Suns lost 4 in a row without him. What is overlooked is that at the time they had also lost their backup PG to injury, so in Nash’s absence they were down to their 3rd option. Also, the games they lost were all against playoff teams, and 3 were on the road. </P><P><B>Who gains most from the intangibles?</B> We think it is valid to cast a vote factoring in intangibles such as leadership and games played, but we deplore the votes driven by sympathy and myths. In our view of the intangibles, we give Shaq 0.5 points for being a difference maker, and we subtract 0.5 points from Duncan for missing 1/4 of the season. If we are reflecting the real voting, we also have to add another 0.5 to Shaq for the sympathy factor and 0.5 to Nash for the myths that will influence voters. </P><P>In the real voting, from what we have discussed to this point in both stats and intangibles, we see a slight edge towards Shaq and Nash. However, on our ballot, so far we would have essentially a 4-way tie. </P><P><B>THE BIGGEST INTANGIBLE - WILL IT BE OVERLOOKED? </B></P><P>There is one final factor that might get little discussion, yet to us should be near the top of the list. In making their team a winner, who had the least help? That factor, once included, forces us to our original premise: Lone Star Dirk should be the MVP this year. </P><P>In Phoenix, Nash has been complemented by both Stoudemire and Marion - each of whom are so good that some think they rather than Nash should be the MVP for the entire league. Duncan has been accompanied by Ginobili, an all-star and one of the league’s best in every analysis. Shaq also has an all-NBA caliber running mate in the person of Wade. </P><P>But Dirk? If you take a poll of fans and media as to the 2nd best player on the Mavs, you will find out quickly that there is no consensus whatsoever. His main help has varied from week to week, and even game to game. There are lots of contributors here and there - a cast of thousands, as the saying goes. But there is no second banana for Dirk to rely on each night. </P><P>In former years in Dallas, there was a big 3 of Dirk, Nash, and Finley. This year, Nash is gone and Finley’s game has declined. In spite of that, the team has gotten even better: Dirk has put this team on his back, and overcome those losses. With the loss of Nash, the PGs who are needed to set up Dirk have been inexperienced - so Dirk has fueled the team while they learn. In fact, Dirk only has 2 players alongside him from the Dallas team that went to the Western Conference Finals 2 years ago - and instead of falling to the bottom, they are rising to the top. In Dallas, it isn’t a group of 2 or 3 players that has keyed this team’s ability to win - it is all about Dirk. </P><P>Interestingly, the lesser ability of Dirk’s surrounding cast is a concept that is supported by the numbers. Beech’s +/- analysis measures the success of a team without a particular player on the floor, and is often overused. But an interesting number pops out at us. When Nash, Duncan, or Shaq sits, their team still plays about even with the opposition - meaning they would still be around a .500 team without them. When Dirk sits, the Mavs lose almost 10 points per 48 minutes - which would make them one of the worst teams in the league. </P><P><B>OUR FINAL TALLY </B></P><P>Any of our finalists may win the actual MVP award this year. But in our view, we think the facts should make it go as follows. </P><P>Nash has had an outstanding year, but he plays no defense, and much of his resume is built on myth rather than fact. Duncan has been the best player on the team when he has played - but his missing 1/4 of the season drops the Spurs in the standings and drops him from the top as well. Shaq has made the Heat dominant in the East - but his stats aren’t as good as Duncan or Dirk, and his accomplishments this year are in the weaker conference. </P><P>That leaves us with Lone Star Dirk as our choice. His ability to carry this team to the top without a 2nd star is the deciding factor in our minds. Behind Dirk, our ballot would read (in order) Shaq, Duncan, Nash. For others, Dirk’s one “flaw’’ on his resume will be the fact that the Mavs record is 5th in the league at this point. If the Mavs can fashion a long winning streak in April, and move up to a record near or better than the Spurs, the rest of the league may also agree that Lone Star Dirk is this season’s Most Valuable Player in the NBA. </P><P><EM>EDITORS NOTES: Dean Oliver is considered an authority in the application of statistical analysis to NBA issues and now works exclusively for the Seattle Sonics in analyzing NBA players and teams. His ideas and system are outlined in his book “Basketball On Paper.’’ </EM></P><P><a href=\"http://www.basketballonpaper.com/\" target=\"_blank\" ><FONT color=#0072bc><B>BASKETBALL ON PAPER</B></FONT></A></P><P><EM>Dan Rosenbaum is an economics professor at UNC--Greensboro and an NBA Players Assn consultant who is considered an authority in the application of statistical analysis to NBA issues such as cap issues and player rankings. </EM></P><P><a href=\"http://www.uncg.edu/bae/people/rosenbaum/nba.html\" target=\"_blank\" ><FONT color=#0072bc><B>ROSENBAUM’S WORK</B></FONT></A></P><P><EM>John Hollinger applies statistical analysis to player evaluation. His work can be found at: </EM></P><P><a href=\"http://www.espn.com/\" target=\"_blank\" ><FONT color=#0072bc><B>ESPN.COM</B></FONT></A></P><P><a href=\"http://www.82games.com/\" target=\"_blank\" ><FONT color=#0072bc><B>82GAMES.COM</B></FONT></A></P><P><EM>Roland Beech is the creator of many NBA analytical tools, including the Roland System that analyzes a player\'s plus-minus effect on a team. His work can be found at: </EM></P><P><a href=\"http://www.82games.com/\" target=\"_blank\" ><FONT color=#0072bc><B>82GAMES.COM</B></FONT></A></P><P><EM>Ed Kupfer analyzes NBA data and players. His site \"Brother Ed- Stats Pimp\" is currently unavailable to the public.</EM></P></DIV> |
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