索老怪物接受南华早报采访全文
兼听则明吧，毕竟去年老怪物搞日本，让人觉得宝刀不老。另外老怪物很多时候口是心非，说的话也会为所得到的目的造势。===================================================================================================
ChineseEconomy and the new LeadershipQ: What do you think of China’s economic performance in thepast year? A: Since 2008, when the financial crisis started in the US,China became the motor of the global economy. It became the driving forcemoving global economy forward. China’s economy is much smaller still than theUS. It is smaller than the US consumer . Therefore, the growthhas been slower since 2008 than it was before. So I rate China’s contributionquite high. Q: What are the main threats to the Chinese economy?A: They are partly external, because of the slow growth, and theinability of the global economy to continue to absorb the ever-increasingChinese exports. And internal, because China has to change its growth model.China has to reorient itself from export and investments to domesticconsumption.It is going to be a very difficult transformation, because thehousehold consumption is only 1/3 of the Chinese economy. Exports andinvestments are 2/3. The growth of 1/3 cannot make up for the slower growth inthe 2/3. Therefore, the overall growth rate will have to be significantlyslower than it has been up to now. That is a very important point.I don’t have enough knowledge to have an estimate , but the official estimate is 7.5 per cent. Theimportant point is that it is less than the 8 per cent which wasconsidered sacrosanct until now. It was in fact significantly exceeded inreality. That means significantly lower growth.Q: What will China’s economic transformation be like in a fewyears?A: I think the period of rapid growth when the overalleconomy was growing more than 10 per cent in reality is over, and itis unlikely to recur. It is a phase of growth that occurs at the early stage ofeconomic transformation, and it does not occur in the more mature phase thatChina is today entering.Q: What do you expect from the new government after the newleadership took power?A: I believe they are aware of the need to make this change.I should have said earlier that this change doesn’t necessarily have to occurtoday -- the old model can last for another year or so, but it cannot lastanother 10 years. Therefore, the new leadership that has to think in termsof 10 years must embark on this change, especially that, in my opinion, thechange was already delayed by the previous leadership which only had one or twoyears to go, and therefore they extended the life of the old model.That actually creates additional problems for the new leadershipbecause with the extension, some serious imbalances havedeveloped in the last year or so. Shadow BankingQ: What are the imbalances?A: By stimulating investments, the capacity of industryincreased, but the market didn’t increase enough. Therefore, the profitabilityof production, both of export and of investment themselves, declined. Thatcreates financial problems -- it increases the bad loans that banks have made.And also, the government has started cutting back on the availability of cheapcredit. Therefore, particularly the real estate companies were forced to borrowin the quasi-bank markets. And that borrowing cost is much higher, at a timewhen the investments were less profitable. When it comes to repaying the loans,there may be some difficulties in collecting the money.The quasi bank market is mainly in the hands of state-owned banks,which have wealth management subsidiaries. And there is an implicit guaranteeby the banks, so when the wealth management companies have difficulties incollecting the loans, the state-owned banks will have to make up for thedifference.On a few occasions when this has occurred so far, thestate-owned banks have always made up for the losses. But if they are very big,maybe one of the non-state-owned banks cannot meet itsobligation, and then you could have a run on that bank.So this is somewhat similar to what happened in the United Stateswith the subprime mortgages that eventually, of course, led to a seriousfinancial crisis.Now, I think the authorities are aware of the problem, and theyalso have very substantial resources available to deal with the problem. Theyalso know what happened in America in 2008. So I think they will be able todeflate this incipient bubble without a serious financial crisis. This is theproblem the new leadership now faces. China’s Financial RegulationQ: What is your assessment of how China’s policiesworked in 2008-2009? Were they successful?A: China was very successful in 2008 when there was avery large, sudden drop in export of more than 25 per cent,to stimulate the economy. And they had the resources to do it. So China sailedthrough the crisis of 2008.Q: Do you think China’s financial regulatory system operateseffectively?A: I hold China’s financial regulatory system in very highregard. And I have actually met them in the past, so actually know them. Ithink they understand the problems, and they have learned lessons from themistakes that were made in the West.I think the Chinese regulators have a much closer and moreintimate knowledge of what goes on inside the banks. The lack of detailedknowledge in the West is quite amazing. And that was the reason why things wentso wrong. Chinese Stock and Real Estate MarketsQ: What are your views on the Chinese stock market?A: It is not surprising that the market did not go up in linewith the overall growth of the economy, because that growth was actuallyaccompanied by a lack of profits. And stock markets generally reflect thegrowth of earnings, not the growth of output. Because too much went intoinvestment and export, they were not profitable. In fact they even createdproblems for the banks. Naturally they also created problems for the stockmarket because there is a lack of earnings.In five to 10 years, if the authorities are successful inchanging the growth model, and there is more production for consumption, notfor export and investment, then the profits of the companies that cater to theconsumer could increase, particularly those winners who can innovate and fulfillthe needs and the taste of the consumers, could become very goodinvestments.And of course that would mean a larger portion of the economywould be in the hands of private enterprises rather than state-ownedenterprises, and the private enterprises would be more independent from thestate, and would not have to pay rent to the bureaucracy. That would be a bigimprovement in economic performance.Q: What about China’s real estate market? Do you see bubbles?A: I think real estate is rather vulnerable in China, becauseit has been a favourite form of savings. People bought more than one apartment,particularly state employees who have financing which enables them to buy morethan one apartment. So there has been a large accumulation of apartments whichare empty and are like savings in gold or in a bank.I think it’s part of the transformation that at least the emptyapartments will have to be sold, or maybe taxed. I think they are now a riskyinvestment.I think imposing a property tax would be very effective, but itwould have to be done very gradually, exactly because they are so effective,they could create a crash.If, say, a state employee who has fiveapartments, of which four are empty, he would have to pay tax for fiveapartments. He couldn’t hold them, he would have to sell them. Then the marketwould be flooded by apartments for sale. That is something that has to be donevery gently. So far I don’t think it has been done except in some pilotschemes, but I don’t know the details.If you have to pay just five per cent or three percent tax every year whether you sell it or not, that would have the effectof pushing some people to sell.
Urbanisation and Planning
Q: What do you think about the Chinese leadership’s urbanisation policies? Is it realistic to expect urbanisation to continue to drive the Chinese economy in the years to come?
A: I think it is very realistic. Urbanisation is likely to occur whether authorities plan it or not. And the fact that they are planning it makes it easier for them to prepare properly. If you don’t prepare for it, you would have, for instance, no services for the people rushing or being drawn to the cities, and you’d have slums. They occur all over the world -- you have very fast-growing, large cities all over the world. I think it is definitely going to happen. And I think in this respect, China is in the forefront of planning for it.
Q: What do you think of the Chinese government’s economic planning capabilities?
A: It may be too rigid. I visited the new cities planned for Tianjin, and there is a plan showing individual houses, and what they would be used for in 20 years time. I don’t think anybody has enough foresight to be able to predict what the demand would be in 20 years’ time. It would be very interesting to see how close the actual development would be to the plan.
Pudong had this plan, which was very impressive, and the reality came very close to what was planned. But I have my doubts whether the next one would be equally successful. It is too rigid in my opinion.
Obviously there is a middle ground, and particularly the United States has relied too heavily on private enterprise, and now is paying a heavy price. China has been at the forefront of economic planning, and very successful at it. But maybe Chinese planners are becoming overconfident in their ability to design the future. There is a danger that they may overdo it.
I think the initial signs are very encouraging, but it is too early to form an opinion. On the balance, I am optimistic because there is already a tradition in China of recognising the need to change the business model, switching from one to another. The existing model has produced positive results. The government has quite substantially accumulated reserves, such as the foreign reserve. That gives them the need to correct shortcomings.
Long or Short on China?
Q: If you were an active investor now, would you describe yourself as long or short on China?
A: I am also aware of the exceptional difficulties that the transition is going to bring, and therefore, if I were an investor, I think I would be very cautious in the near term – the next year or so. Because you have this situation when 2/3 of the economy has to slow down, and 1/3 has to expand. That already makes it very difficult. What makes it even more difficult is when there is an overall slowdown, the households’ first reaction may be to become more cautious, and their propensity to save would increase – they would be afraid that their job is not safe, and they would not be so confident in spending money. And then all three of the sectors would slow down at the same time. That would create a hard landing.
Q: On many occasions people have spoken about a hard landing in China, but there never has been one.
A: I think to some extent, the hard landing has already occurred, but it hasn’t been so hard. Automobile sales slowed down, and housing market slowed down, in the last year. Then the authorities gave another shot of stimulus which was very much like the old style, relaxing monetary conditions, and then housing recovered.
I am sorry to say, but the jury is out.
On Local Government Debts
Q:What about local government debts? How big a threat are they?
A: The business model of local authorities depended on selling property at ever rising prices. That is not sustainable. And you will need to actually make houses available at affordable prices, so you need social housing. That doesn’t give local authorities the revenues they are used to. Actually, it may involve expenses. And so, the local authorities would be under considerable pressure.
I don’t think there is any risk of large-scale defaults, because there will be re-allocational burdens from the local government to the central government. Maybe it would increase the control of the central government over local governments, but I can’t imagine the central government allowing local governments to default, just as it is most unlikely that the state-owned banks would allow one of their wealth management companies to default. The consequences would be too severe.
The RMB
Q: What do you think about the internationalistion of the RMB? Will it become a world currency in the future?
A: At sometime in the future, yes. But the government is eager to see the RMB being used in international transactions, but not to allow the international market to be too closely connected to the domestic market. And I actually approve of that policy because it has protected China from external shocks creating too much trouble internally. And I think it is quite a wise policy. But the domestic market will have to become much more mature and the international markets will also need to be better controlled, become more stable, before the RMB would become a global currency.
Gold
Q: What is your view on gold?
A: That’s a complicated question. It has disappointed the public, because it is meant to be the ultimate safe haven. But when the euro was close to collapsing in the last year, actually gold went down, because if people needed to sell something, they could sell gold. Therefore they sold gold. So gold went down together with everything else.
Gold was destroyed as a safe haven, proved to be unsafe. Because of the disappointment, most people are reducing their holdings of gold. But the central banks will continue to buy them, so I don’t expect gold to go down. If you have the prospect of a crisis, you will have occasional flurries or jumps. So gold is very volatile on a day-to-day basis, no trend on a longer-term basis.
China and the European Financial Crisis
Q: What role do you imagine for China in the European financial crisis?
A: China has just made a gesture of contributing 1 billion euros to the rescue of Cyprus. This is a symbolic gesture because China has an interest in maintaining the euro as an alternative to the dollar. And it has large holdings of the euro that it doesn’t want to see lose value. It is a defensive contribution.
Philanthropy
Q: What advice would you offer in terms of philanthropy to the increasing number of rich people in China?
A:People who have become rich in China show real interest in philanthropy, which I think is very praiseworthy because I think it is appropriate for those who have benefited disproportionately that they should return some of it to those who are less fortunate. I think it will contribute to social harmony.
I think the natural instinct is to engage in charity. But that has some negative side effects, because charity can turn the recipients into objects of charity, who become dependent instead of depending on themselves. There are people, like the sick and the old, who need to be taken care of. But particularly in the case of children and young people, it is much more important to enable them to improve themselves, giving them opportunities to learn. Scholarships are better than charity.
先感谢楼主，再看文章' 刚刚看完第一段，谈下自己的看法下，等下再看第二段。
感觉老头不是很看好刺激投资和出口，还是不明白为什么他认为这两样会给银行带来压力，我倒觉得出口会带来更对工作岗位，应该会更好的刺激消费才对啊！而投资也可以分很多种的嘛！不一定是铁公基，半导体，太阳能什么的也算吧。
1／3来自国内的消费这个数据是否正确？国内的汽车推广个人觉得真的做的很好，汽车价格也低，而且几乎都能国产化了，先不论是否掌握核心技术，国内的路也多、也能消化掉这些车。但现在汽车销售是否饱和？反正感觉家里还不算差的话也都有车了。其他的日用品的消费感觉国内做的不大好，比如小电子产品像电脑和手机这样的。
房产税，他的观点我的确没有想过，很多人确实有多套房，一旦开征，可能大量房源涌向市场，这的确带给银行很大的压力，但我担心的是，有门路的人会不会有什么手段规避掉这些东西，让征房产税变成一场巧取豪夺的游戏。
还有，银行现在真有那么多问题吗？
领导交接他看的蛮准确的，但我不觉得新领导层会带来本质上的改变，解决了遗留的，又会有新问题，世界总是不稳定的嘛！老头子的观点。 中国真的成功的挺过了08年吗？总觉得是受了内伤，但硬挺着。
外面的市场是真的饱和了还是被人玩了？太阳能光伏行业现在都说发展的太快，原材料的猛涨到底是外面给下的套还是正常的市场调整。中国企业走出去的步幅还要加大才行，现在吃点亏，能挺过来的话，以后的生存环境就好了很多。 第二段也看完了。
中国政府真的有把规划做的这么详尽吗？不过有时候硬来可能会带来很多别的问题。大城市没有贫民窟的确是中国很了不起的地方，郎咸平好像也谈过这个问题，不过是从中国的文化角度去谈的，也有些道理。
地方债务听有些人讲的好像非常严重，希望我们能解决。老头子讲金讲的很暧昧，不知道是不是有短期行情？
中国跟塞浦路斯也扯上关系了，在这边听到的消息是那个国家玩完了，都在讲欧盟里的大国家玩了它们一把，中国的资金在那里安全吗？
对慈善的看法一直不大好，还是各种专项基金好些，浪费的会少点。 日，没文化害死人。。。有没有汉语版？
页:
[1]