兼听则明吧，毕竟去年老怪物搞日本，让人觉得宝刀不老。另外老怪物很多时候口是心非，说的话也会为所得到的目的造势。
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ChineseEconomy and the new Leadership Q: What do you think of China’s economic performance in thepast year? A: Since 2008, when the financial crisis started in the US,China became the motor of the global economy. It became the driving forcemoving global economy forward. China’s economy is much smaller still than theUS. It is smaller than the US consumer [economy]. Therefore, the growthhas been slower since 2008 than it was before. So I rate China’s contributionquite high. Q: What are the main threats to the Chinese economy? A: They are partly external, because of the slow growth, and theinability of the global economy to continue to absorb the ever-increasingChinese exports. And internal, because China has to change its growth model.China has to reorient itself from export and investments to domesticconsumption. It is going to be a very difficult transformation, because thehousehold consumption is only 1/3 of the Chinese economy. Exports andinvestments are 2/3. The growth of 1/3 cannot make up for the slower growth inthe 2/3. Therefore, the overall growth rate will have to be significantlyslower than it has been up to now. That is a very important point. I don’t have enough knowledge to have an estimate [of China’sGDP growth rate this year], but the official estimate is 7.5 per cent. Theimportant point is that it is less than the 8 per cent which wasconsidered sacrosanct until now. It was in fact significantly exceeded inreality. That means significantly lower growth. Q: What will China’s economic transformation be like in a fewyears? A: I think the period of rapid growth when the overalleconomy was growing more than 10 per cent in reality is over, and itis unlikely to recur. It is a phase of growth that occurs at the early stage ofeconomic transformation, and it does not occur in the more mature phase thatChina is today entering. Q: What do you expect from the new government after the newleadership took power? A: I believe they are aware of the need to make this change.I should have said earlier that this change doesn’t necessarily have to occurtoday -- the old model can last for another year or so, but it cannot lastanother 10 years. Therefore, the new leadership that has to think in termsof 10 years must embark on this change, especially that, in my opinion, thechange was already delayed by the previous leadership which only had one or twoyears to go, and therefore they extended the life of the old model.That actually creates additional problems for the new leadershipbecause with the extension, some serious imbalances havedeveloped in the last year or so. Shadow Banking Q: What are the imbalances? A: By stimulating investments, the capacity of industryincreased, but the market didn’t increase enough. Therefore, the profitabilityof production, both of export and of investment themselves, declined. Thatcreates financial problems -- it increases the bad loans that banks have made.And also, the government has started cutting back on the availability of cheapcredit. Therefore, particularly the real estate companies were forced to borrowin the quasi-bank markets. And that borrowing cost is much higher, at a timewhen the investments were less profitable. When it comes to repaying the loans,there may be some difficulties in collecting the money. The quasi bank market is mainly in the hands of state-owned banks,which have wealth management subsidiaries. And there is an implicit guaranteeby the banks, so when the wealth management companies have difficulties incollecting the loans, the state-owned banks will have to make up for thedifference. On a few occasions when this has occurred so far, thestate-owned banks have always made up for the losses. But if they are very big,maybe one of the non-state-owned banks cannot meet itsobligation, and then you could have a run on that bank. So this is somewhat similar to what happened in the United Stateswith the subprime mortgages that eventually, of course, led to a seriousfinancial crisis. Now, I think the authorities are aware of the problem, and theyalso have very substantial resources available to deal with the problem. Theyalso know what happened in America in 2008. So I think they will be able todeflate this incipient bubble without a serious financial crisis. This is theproblem the new leadership now faces. China’s Financial Regulation Q: What is your assessment of how China’s policiesworked in 2008-2009? Were they successful? A: China was very successful in 2008 when there was avery large, sudden drop in export of more than 25 per cent,to stimulate the economy. And they had the resources to do it. So China sailedthrough the crisis of 2008. Q: Do you think China’s financial regulatory system operateseffectively? A: I hold China’s financial regulatory system in very highregard. And I have actually met them in the past, so actually know them. Ithink they understand the problems, and they have learned lessons from themistakes that were made in the West. I think the Chinese regulators have a much closer and moreintimate knowledge of what goes on inside the banks. The lack of detailedknowledge in the West is quite amazing. And that was the reason why things wentso wrong. Chinese Stock and Real Estate Markets Q: What are your views on the Chinese stock market? A: It is not surprising that the market did not go up in linewith the overall growth of the economy, because that growth was actuallyaccompanied by a lack of profits. And stock markets generally reflect thegrowth of earnings, not the growth of output. Because too much went intoinvestment and export, they were not profitable. In fact they even createdproblems for the banks. Naturally they also created problems for the stockmarket because there is a lack of earnings. In five to 10 years, if the authorities are successful inchanging the growth model, and there is more production for consumption, notfor export and investment, then the profits of the companies that cater to theconsumer could increase, particularly those winners who can innovate and fulfillthe needs and the taste of the consumers, could become very goodinvestments. And of course that would mean a larger portion of the economywould be in the hands of private enterprises rather than state-ownedenterprises, and the private enterprises would be more independent from thestate, and would not have to pay rent to the bureaucracy. That would be a bigimprovement in economic performance. Q: What about China’s real estate market? Do you see bubbles? A: I think real estate is rather vulnerable in China, becauseit has been a favourite form of savings. People bought more than one apartment,particularly state employees who have financing which enables them to buy morethan one apartment. So there has been a large accumulation of apartments whichare empty and are like savings in gold or in a bank. I think it’s part of the transformation that at least the emptyapartments will have to be sold, or maybe taxed. I think they are now a riskyinvestment. I think imposing a property tax would be very effective, but itwould have to be done very gradually, exactly because they are so effective,they could create a crash. If, say, a state employee who has fiveapartments, of which four are empty, he would have to pay tax for fiveapartments. He couldn’t hold them, he would have to sell them. Then the marketwould be flooded by apartments for sale. That is something that has to be donevery gently. So far I don’t think it has been done except in some pilotschemes, but I don’t know the details. If you have to pay just five per cent or three percent tax every year whether you sell it or not, that would have the effectof pushing some people to sell.
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