智利地震题材股

智利的地震，让我想起了2008年5月12日时候，国泰君安的一份报告，在向震区人民表示哀悼的同时，同时推荐了一些股票，这些股票的走势还算不错。
我总在想一件事情，很多人死了就已经死了，做为万里之外的人们可能无法为他们做出什么，那么化悲痛为力量，好好研究智利地震对几个有色金属的影响吧。

	2008	2009	2010e
西欧	191	220	308
非洲	1044	1204	1492
亚洲（除中国）	1170	1539	1475
北美	1935	1709	1701
智利	5411	5303	5775
拉美	7251	7127	7709
澳洲	1045	1035	1038
中国	1012	1055	1133
俄罗斯	682	678	687
合计	15597	15833	16832
调整		0	-1010
全球产量	15597	15833	15832

以上是世界铜矿产量预测，单位是千吨。 我们可以看到智利在世界铜矿山生产中举足轻重的地位。

以上是2007年到2008年初的铜价走势图，地震发生在11月14日。


  
其中红圈是震中。

  

以上未受影响的矿山  


以上红色的是受伤影响的矿山。

目前的情况是有100万吨的铜生产受到影响，但其最大原因是电力中断，至于中断多久，目前还没有消息。
另外，我们需要注意到的是，世界最大的盐湖，离其有1000公里以上，可能不会受到影响。  

另外大宗商品行业，我们还需要观察欧猪四国的继续，以及美元指数，以及人民币汇率的影响。美元指数上升以及crb指数上涨，在历史上也是出现过的。
最好的观察时间点是今晚了，看看今晚的期货市场。
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以上只是提供大多数机构所能看到的资讯，至于散户咋做，好自为之吧。

http://www.gerfans.cn/bbs/read-htm-tid-138966-page-2.html
我昨晚已经发了。
目前的局势是太乱了。

Copper impact likely to be limited, but power outages pose a risk
A massive 8.8 magnitude earthquake hit Chile early Saturday morning,
February 27 striking 56 miles (90 km) northeast of the city of Concepcion.
Chile is the world’s largest copper producer, producing about 5300 KMT,
or 34% of global copper production of about 15,830 KMT in 2009. Most of
the major producing copper mines are located in the north of the country,
far from the quake which struck in central Chile. However, as of 9pm EST
on Saturday February 27, 5 major copper mines had been disrupted owing
to the quake, amounting to about 1100 KMT or 21% of Chilean copper
production and nearly 7% of global copper production. However, the
closures were forced by electricity/energy supply outages with no
structural damage reported. Thus, the duration of the disruptions will likely
depend on the ability to repair the power supply. At this time, the
electricity outages are expected to be short-lived, but the potential for
extended power outages poses downside risk to production and upside
risk to prices, especially as copper fundamentals have already begun to
show signs of tightening. Any sustained supply disruption would hasten
this tightening, reinforcing our constructive view on the metal.

以上是国际最出名的投行的，最新关于智利地震所做出的预测。

本次智利地震波及该国苹果主产区（智利有两大苹果主产区，其中马乌莱大区是本次地震两大重灾区之一，而奥伊金斯将军解放者大区紧挨着马乌莱大区），且2、3月份正是南美苹果汁压榨季，
可能苹果汁也有涨价预期,关系到哪些股票,各位自己找吧.

[s:115] 国投中鲁么……

Majority of Chilean pulp production is down due to Saturday's
earthquake
The 8.8-magnitude earthquake that hit the Chilean coast near the city of
Constitucion on Saturday morning had important but still not fully known
consequences for pulp operations in the country, as the totality of Chilean
production capacity is located at an average radius of 324 km from the
most affected city. Arauco and CMPC, Chilean pulp producers, have not
yet disclosed the impact on their mills and infrastructure. Arauco stated in
a press release yesterday that, according to its contingency plans, it
established production downtime at its plants to determine the damage to
each of its facilities, a task that only now seems to be possible to attempt.
The downtime will be for an indefinite period, the release stated. CMPC
declared force majeure for an initial period of 30 days, during which it is
going to assess the damages suffered.
Global pulp supply-demand will get tighter
Chilean pulp companies account for 8.8% of the world market’s pulp
production capacity, accounting for 9.4% of softwood, 7.5% of hardwood,
and 17.5% of unbleached kraft pulp. In the short term, the global shipmentto-
capacity ratio could reach 92%-95% from 86% in January (as reported by
PPPC); January shipments tend to be seasonally weak. We believe some of
the new, modern mills may have been constructed with the risk of
earthquakes in mind, but damage to infrastructure, communications, and the
energy supply could be the main barrier for fast ramp-up of production.
Chilean exports to China represent about 15% of Chinese pulp imports, and
there is no excess of capacity globally to fulfill this gap in the short term.
Pulp price curve could shift up on panic buying, lower inventories
The Chilean earthquake is the type of event that could shift upward the
forecast pulp price curve. Global pulp supply-demand was already very tight,
with producers’, consumers’, and ports’ inventories all well below
normalized levels. There is a significant number of new paper machines
expected to start up in China during 2010 that will require high-quality fiber
from South America, which may not be available. There is no large pulp
project starting up outside of China until the end of 2012 at the earliest. Pulp
prices should enjoy strong momentum and a ceiling could be a level of
demand destruction. The pulp-to-paper price ratio could reach historical
records. Fibria’s and Suzano’s shares should see strong momentum.
还是世界自营做的最牛的投行的文章，今天早上发的。
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[s:90]  中国只能自己砍树了。。。。。

数据之外，请各位一定留意条顿帖子所反映的内在逻辑：宏观事件或突发事件的蝴蝶效应，前提是对相关事件影响到的基本面有扎实的了解，作为职业投资者这是通往成功的必经之路。
与其去揣测什么虚无的庄家，不如静下心来仔细研究一下行业或公司的基本面变革，这才是决定股价处于大顶或大底变盘前夜的最重要的先行指标。一旦发现基本面同股价走势发生明显的背离，你需要做的唯一事情，就是决定是否进场或离场。
不要把机构对基本面数据掌握的优势过分夸大，散户只要有心，只要坚持，看出端倪也是水到渠成的事。

引用第9楼alwayscholl于2010-03-12 23:00发表的  :
数据之外，请各位一定留意条顿帖子所反映的内在逻辑：宏观事件或突发事件的蝴蝶效应，前提是对相关事件影响到的基本面有扎实的了解，作为职业投资者这是通往成功的必经之路。
与其去揣测什么虚无的庄家，不如静下心来仔细研究一下行业或公司的基本面变革，这才是决定股价处于大顶或大底变盘前夜的最重要的先行指标。一旦发现基本面同股价走势发生明显的背离，你需要做的唯一事情，就是决定是否进场或离场。
不要把机构对基本面数据掌握的优势过分夸大，散户只要有心，只要坚持，看出端倪也是水到渠成的事。

                               
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其实我的主题，里面都说了。
德迷联盟的人，来自各行各业，平常上班的时候，很难订着日k线，甚至周k线等，都难盯。与其天天做t挣点小钱，影响自己的主业，还真不如买基金呢。别说你们没有那些时间看盘时间，连我们都难有。
但来自各个行业，起码对行业的了解上有先天优势。如果能从本身活着相关等各个行业入手，让股票带动你主业的发展，那才是最重要的。再简而言之来说，哪种券商最受欢迎，能请来行业专家给机构作讲座的人，最受欢迎。