小弟正好在伦敦一家投行实习,昨天刚从英国同事那得到竞争对手高盛最新发布的世界杯夺冠赔率,作者是Jim O'Neill, Head of Global Economics,我看了下,他采用了multi risk factor model模拟出的概率,他自己是曼彻斯特人,也是曼联忠实球迷。
Brazil 13.76%
Spain 10.46%
Germany 9.40%
England 9.38%
Argentina 9.08%
Netherlands 7.07%
Italy 6.46%
France 6.13%
USA 2.81%
Serbia 2.61%
Mexico 2.40%
Portugal 2.32%
Uruguay 2.11%
Greece 1.84%
Nigeria 1.76%
Australia 1.69%
Ghana 1.63%
Cameroon 1.12%
Paraguay 1.06%
Slovenia 1.06%
Chile 0.87%
South Korea 0.76%
Denmark 0.74%
Algeria 0.69%
South Africa 0.68%
Ivory Coast 0.55%
Slovakia 0.52%
Japan 0.44%
Switzerland 0.35%
New Zealand 0.11%
Honduras 0.11%
North Korea 0.05%