GS Probabilities
Country Model Probability
Brazil 13.76%
Spain 10.46% Germany 9.40%
England 9.38%
Argentina 9.08%
Netherlands 7.07%
Italy 6.46%
France 6.13%
USA 2.81%
Serbia 2.61%
Mexico 2.40%
Portugal 2.32%
Uruguay 2.11%
Greece 1.84%
Nigeria 1.76%
Australia 1.69%
Ghana 1.63%
Cameroon 1.12%
Paraguay 1.06%
Slovenia 1.06%
Chile 0.87%
South Korea 0.76%
Denmark 0.74%
Algeria 0.69%
South Africa 0.68%
Ivory Coast 0.55%
Slovakia 0.52%
Japan 0.44%
Switzerland 0.35%
New Zealand 0.11%
Honduras 0.11%
North Korea 0.05%
Who Will Win The 2010 World Cup?
Note: This table translates FIFA rankings into odds and combines themw ith
the average odds given by bookmakers to create an "initial probability".
Then, it penalises countries according to how tough their schedule is, and
produces the final probability as per the table above.
The 2010 World CupBased on current form, it is hard to see the Germannational team progressing far in South Africa. But then again, German teams often don’t look like realcontenders on paper, but then go on to do a lot better thanexpected. The German expression for this phenomenon isTurniermannschaft (literally ‘tournament team’),meaning a squad that rises to the occasion, getting better game by game. And it is this phenomenon, which has been proven to work time and again in the past, on which the hopes of the German team rest.The weakest link in the 2010 team is probably in the forward positions: the starting line-up of Klose, Gomez and Podolski have had a rather disappointing performance during the current season in their respective clubs. Other strikers who have done much better over recent months seem not to have gained the confidence of
coach Löw. It remains to be seen whether the spirit of the Turniermannschaft can work its magic here again.One development that could benefit the German team is that fact that the German players from Bayern Munich will have played in the Champions League final. This is Odds: 10/1 World Ranking: 6 Date Venue Against Local Time 13-Jun Durban Australia 20:30 18-Jun Port Elizabeth Serbia 13:30 23-Jun Johannesburg (SC) Ghana 20:30 Previous Appearances: 16 Host Year Outcome Italy 1934 Third place France 1938 Round 1 Sw itzerland 1954 Winners Sw eden 1958 Fourth place Chile 1962 Quarter-finals England 1966 Runners-up Mexico 1970 Third place Germany 1974 Winners Argentina 1978 Quarter-finals Spain 1982 Runners-up Mexico 1986 Runners-up Italy 1990 Winners USA 1994 Quarter-finals France 1998 Quarter-finals Korea/Japan 2002 Runners-up
Germany 2006 Third place Previous World Cup Results Games Played 92 Won 55 Draw n 19 Lost 18 Goals Scored 190 Goals Against 112 Yellow Cards 53 Red Cards 6 Statistics for Germany 1st Round Match Schedule Won Drawn Lost 33 May 2010 Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research The World Cup and Economics 2010 certainly good preparation for the World Cup stage (even more so if Bayern should win the Champions League). All in all, the German team may have a small chance of winning the tournament but it will certainly make the most of that chance.
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