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Ahead of what promises to be a strong and hyper-competitive season for smart phones, we commissioned a global survey of 3,000 consumers in the United States, United Kingdom, and China, to help inform our investment conclusions in this fast moving segment. Our top eight conclusions are below:
1. Smartphone demand set to spike for the holidays –
Among those consumers who do not yet have a smart phone, about 10% plan to buy a smart phone in the next 90 days. A normal two-year replacement cycle suggests that 12.5% of handset users will buy a new handset in any 90-day period, implying that the vast majority of handset purchases this holiday season will be smart phones, potentially also driving a faster replacement cycle. This suggests upside to our already robust smart phone growth estimates of 52% in 2010 and 47% in 2011 in these two regions, and alleviates recent concerns over an inventory build-up.
2. Apple’s share may decline in the US near term, highlighting the importance of the move to Verizon –
Surprisingly, among those consumers in the US who do not yet have a smartphone but plan to buy one in the next 90 days, only 14% would choose an iPhone, well below Apple’s current market share of 25%. This could reflect a pause ahead of the expected move of the iPhone to Verizon in early 2011 once AT&T’s exclusivity expires. In addition,Apple’s loyalty declined, with 62% of US iPhone users planning to buy another iPhone, compared to 74% in our July 2009 survey, though still the highest among all vendors.
3. RIM’s share in the US is stabilizing, though loyalty continues to slide –
Among US consumers who plan to buy their first smart phone in the next 90 days, 26% are considering BlackBerry, second only to Android at 27%. This compares to BlackBerry’s current market share of 28%, and implies that its share may stabilize over the near term after being cut in half over the last year. However, loyalty among the installed BlackBerry customer base continued to deteriorate, with only 38% of US BlackBerry users saying they would purchase another BlackBerry device, down from 48% in our July ‘09 survey and compared to 61% for Apple.
4. Android rapidly gaining –
Android’s share in the US and UK is now close to 25%, up from the low single digits last year, with an estimated 80% of the gains in the US coming from RIM and 20% from Apple. Android’s consumer loyalty is second only to Apple at around 40%, and it leads in the US with 27% of consumers who plan to buy their first smart phone in the next 90 days.
5. Nokia’s share set to decline further –
Nokia had the highest consumer dissatisfaction levels and the lowest brand loyalty among smart phone vendors. Its share looks set to decline further, with only 10% of UK consumers who plan to buy their first smart phone in the next 90 days considering Nokia, vs. its 22% share of current UK smart phone owners. Similarly in China, only 37% are considering Nokia for their first smart phone purchase in the next 90 days, vs. its current share of 49%.
6. Windows down but not out –
While not necessarily representative of Windows Phone’s traction, Windows Mobile lagged far behind in user loyalty and satisfaction. However, 10% of consumers are considering Windows for their first smart phone, and Windows users tend to purchase applications (as opposed to get free applications) more frequently than any other platform.
7. Smartphone purchases are increasingly a consumer rather than enterprise-led decision
Roughly 70% of smart phone users in the United States and the United Kingdom do not receive any sort of smart phone subsidy from their employers, up significantly from 45% in our July 2009 US Smartphone Survey. In addition, less than 2% of consumers use their smart phones for business use only, down from 9% in our July 2009 survey.
8. Tablet demand robust –
6% of US consumers and 11% of UK consumers are considering buying a tablet in the next 90 days.
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