<strong>Swap Shop 2</strong><font size=\"6\"><br/></font><font face=\"verdana\"><font size=\"2\"><font color=\"#333399\"><strong>An In-Depth Look: Trade Options</strong></font></font></font><br/><font face=\"verdana\"><font size=\"1\"><font color=\"#000000\"><i>By Mike Fisher -- DB.com</i>
<br/></font></font></font><font face=\"Times New Roman\"><font size=\"3\"><font color=\"#000000\"><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">In </font><a href=\"http://dallasbasketball.com/morestories.asp?id=3878&NAV=1\" target=\"_blank\"><u><font size=\"2\"><font color=\"#0000ff\">art 1</font></font></u></a><font size=\"2\"> we began to look at the most logical ways the Mavs might address their needs through trades. We details what player(s) are the logical candidates for a trade, what are the needs to address, and some of the simple trade concepts and targets that could be at the top of the shopping list.</font></font></font><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">Now in Part 2, we will delve into the latest and more complex issues. What have the Mavs been saying, and how does it fit all these trade possibilities? What other trade assets could the Mavs use? What about sign-and-trades (especially for premium free agents)? How do all the trade ideas and targets being tossed around stack up? </font></font></font><br/><br/><b><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">SUMMER PLANS AND TRADES FOR THE MAVS – IN THEIR OWN WORDS</font></font></font></b><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">Since part 1, the Mavs have decided to help us with our analysis, and Mark Cuban has given us a team memo detailing EVERYTHING! </font></font></font><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">Just kidding. You instantly knew better than to believe they gave out that info, didn’t you? Unfortunately, they’ve offered us NONE of the above. Instead, as always, the Mavs are keeping a tight lid on what they intend to do. Outside their inner circle, no one definitively knows what directions they have in mind. </font></font></font><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">But The 75-Member Staff has done its homework. We have had our conversations. And just to cover one more base, we did go through Donnie Nelson’s state-of-the-state address (on ESPN radio with Jen Engle) with a fine-toothed comb. (The full story is here </font><a href=\"http://dallasbasketball.com/newleftArticle.asp?id=149\" target=\"_blank\"><u><font size=\"2\"><font color=\"#0000ff\">http://dallasbasketball.com/newleftArticle.asp?id=149</font></font></u></a><font size=\"2\"> Generally he said: </font></font></font><br/><br/><font size=\"2\"><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Symbol\">·</font></font><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">We like our team and want to keep our core and build on what we have.</font></font></font><br/><font size=\"2\"><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Symbol\">·</font></font><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">We don’t want to blow things up by chasing a mega-star.</font></font></font><br/><font size=\"2\"><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Symbol\">·</font></font><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">We are looking for anyone that can help us get easier baskets.</font></font></font><br/><font size=\"2\"><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Symbol\">·</font></font><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">We’d like Stack to be back.</font></font></font><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">In other words, maybe we got a hint that maybe both JET and Devin will stay, but nothing very enlightening.</font></font></font><br/><br/><b><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">WHERE DO THE MAVS GO FROM HERE? </font></font></font></b><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">Keep in mind that the trading season began as soon as each team’s season ended. But while most fans began to immediately talk of trades as soon as the off-season started, many of the teams themselves have been busy elsewhere. They have urgency to evaluate potential draft picks and Euro players that could be available, whose season still is ongoing. In fact, while a few random trades may pop in the interim, the major wave of actual trade activity doesn’t usually come until the days leading up to the draft itself, once teams have had a chance to evaluate their draft options. Some want to get better picks, some are willing to give up talent for picks, and so on – and the draft becomes the fuel that creates urgency.</font></font></font><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">From what Donnie said, it sounds like the Mavs may prefer to keep their full core intact, although we have to acknowledge that they could still trade one major piece (such as JET) and essentially retain their identity as a team.</font></font></font><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">But if the Mavs aren’t trading JET, what other possible trade assets might they use? Here’s how we evaluate them.</font></font></font><br/><br/><b><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">layers under contract: 11</font></font></font></b><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">Summary: We’d be shocked if <i>Dirk, Howard, Harris, Dampier</i>, or <i>Diop</i> were traded. They are the key core and each leaves a troublesome hole if traded. Given Devin\'s presumed future as the PG and JET\'s need to have the ball, JET seems redundant to us, but they talk like he’ll also be back. (Again, we’re somewhat dubious there.) That leaves 5 relatively small contracts (<i>Buckner, Mbenga, Ager, JJB, Pops</i>) as the sum of their tradeable assets among players with contracts, with not enough salary or talent in total to do much in the trade market unless combined with something else.</font></font></font><br/><br/><b><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">Additional assets: 4 free agents</font></font></font></b><br/><br/><font size=\"2\"><i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">Jerry Stackhouse</font></font></i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"> should return. If he doesn’t, he could potentially be a trade asset in a sign-and-trade deal with another team who offers Stack a deal he likes. </font></font></font><br/><br/><font size=\"2\"><i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">Devean George</font></font></i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"> has already opted to be a free agent again this summer, looking for more money than he had. In theory he could be a sign-and-trade asset also, but the chances are microscopic. It would take him signing for the exact perfect amount with the other team - since they have no Bird rights, and you can’t use the MLE in a SNT deal, the only way he could get a raise in a SNT would be on a contract for the Non-Bird Veteran exception that allows +20% from last year. In theory, it\'s possible he might return for that +20% contract, but we consider that a longshot. The Mavs aren\'t commenting, for whatever that might imply. </font></font></font><br/><br/><font size=\"2\"><i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">Austin Croshere</font></font></i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"> is unlikely to return, but the Mavs have Bird rights and in the right situation he could be a sign-and-trade asset in a deal he likes.</font></font></font><br/><br/><font size=\"2\"><i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">Kevin Willis</font></font></i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"> is technically their free agent but won’t be a usable asset other than in a sign-and-trade for up to 120% of the minimum, in a trade where he is pure filler.</font></font></font><br/><br/><b><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">Complex trade assets</font></font></font></b><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">The Mavs also have the ability to use some complex trade assets if they want. While these are less likely to happen than simple trades, teams do use these at times so they are possible. The downside is that the use of these assets requires Cuban to artificially add salary to the taxable payroll, and therefore they are only likely to be used if the net return is very attractive.</font></font></font><br/><br/><font size=\"2\"><i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">Artificial “expiring contracts.”</font></font></i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"> NBA fans are familiar with the concept of using expiring contracts to accept a talented player from another team whose contract is no longer palatable. While the Mavs this summer will have no sizable expiring contracts to offer, they have the ability to create an Artificial Expiring Contract for sign-and-trade purposes, if the need presents itself. </font></font></font><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">In this scenario, a team uses one of their Bird free agents as that needed “expiring contract filler” by offering him a contract far greater than what he will receive on the market in free agency. On paper, the deal is for 3 years, but works like an expiring contract since only year 1 is guaranteed. In addition, the contract would become very advantageous a year later. At that time, they can waive him at no cost, or they can trade him as an instant-expirer for a desired player. The one (considerable) downside to this tool is that it would add significant payroll and tax onto the Mavs budget.</font></font></font><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">Because of base year restrictions and player desires for long-term contracts in free agency, this only will work where the player had a fairly sizable previous contract and is now going to be offered far less. The Mavericks have two such players. In the right trade opportunity, they could offer <i>Stackhouse</i> up to $11.156M which could be swapped for another team’s player making up to $14.045M (in a larger deal than that, base year issues make it no longer desirable.). We think Stack will be back and thus a poor candidate for this.</font></font></font><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">But <i>Croshere</i> would be ideal. They could offer Cro up to $8.76M (which would swap for another team’s player making up to $11.05M). Because this is a contract being created just for trade-matching purposes, it can be sized (with the player’s consent, of course) for the exact amount needed and no more, offering yet another incentive to the team looking to move salary off its books. As long as Cro (for example) is making much more than he would otherwise, and the other team is lowering their salary as they wish, it is a win-win-win scenario for the team willing to add salary for that right piece. Is that the Mavs?</font></font></font><br/><br/><font size=\"2\"><i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">Traded Player Exception</font></font></i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">. Arising from their deadline trade of Anthony Johnson to Atlanta, the Mavs were given a Traded Player Exception, which allows them to take a player from another team while sending only a pick (or cash) rather than a matching contract. When another team is looking to shed salary, this tool can allow the Mavs to accept that player. For the Mavs, their TPE is $2.64M, meaning they could take a player contract as big as $2.74M. Unfortunately, it can’t be combined with sending a player contract away to get a bigger contract back, and the 25% leeway that is given in most trades doesn’t apply to this type of transaction. But if a team wants to move a $2.74M-or-less player that the Mavs want, the Mavs can take them. </font></font></font><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">If they use it, this TPE might tend to be used as more of a \"free agent acquisition\" tool, allowing them to pick up a $2.74M or less free agent via sign-and-trade rather than using up part of their Mid-level Exception. Keeping the full MLE intact for one prized pickup might be very advantageous this summer.</font></font></font><br/><br/><b><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">WHAT ABOUT SPECIFIC TRADE TARGETS?</font></font></font></b><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">There are so many ideas floating around that it’s hard to address them all. But now that we’ve reported some of what the Mavs are saying and defined all the available assets, we’ll take a bit of a stab in those contexts, all in one place.</font></font></font><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">Before we start, let’s offer some disclaimers. First, we did our best to peruse the various forums, and listen to other fans on the street, to see what players or trades you might want discussed. We can’t be sure whom if anyone originated discussions on any of these (and indeed, many of these probably were thought of by multiple fans) but we will give some brief feedback on them here. Do they make sense for the needs and directions of both teams? How do they fit the rules? How do they line up with what we’re hearing so far?</font></font></font><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">Also, on some of these our analysis is going to be too brief. That’s because there are so many to address that it would take too long to write a detailed plus/minus analysis for all of them. </font></font></font><br/><br/><b><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">Trades for Premium Free Agents</font></font></font></b><br/><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">There should be about 5-8 premium free agents this summer (ie, those who will get more than the Mid-Level Exception of about $5.5M available to every team). In theory those are all beyond the Mavs’ price range, but the Mavs hypothetically could sign any of them using the sign-and-trade process and send salary-matching players back to the original team. </font></font></font><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">Is this possible for Dallas? Yes but it’s not workable in every case. The only situations in which it will work for Dallas are (a) a team with cap room might take the player away from his old team for nothing, and the old team wants to ensure some return value for the player they are losing, OR the old team doesn’t want the player back, and (b) the player prefers to play in Dallas. In that situation, getting a valuable talent (like JET, for example) could be a great consolation prize.</font></font></font><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">What is the likelihood of Dallas having a shot on each of those premium players? Let’s take a look at the 8 we think could be in line for an over-MLE payday from someone and explore the probabilities.</font></font></font><br/><br/><font size=\"2\"><i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">Chauncey Billups, PG, Det</font></font></i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">. No chance. He’s a veteran PG who’s excelled in the playoffs and is a leader. Yes he’d help the Mavs. But due to competitive and fan issues, Detroit simply cannot let him get away, so while I think JET would be a great consolation prize for them in a sign-and-trade package, I can’t see the Pistons cooperating with competitors. </font></font></font><br/><br/><font size=\"2\"><i><font color=\"#000000\"><font face=\"Arial\">Mo Williams, PG, Mil. </font></font></i><font color=\"#000000\"><font face=\"Arial\">Not a fit. He’s good, but even though his raw assists numbers would seem to be an improvement for Dallas, he’s more of a combo or scoring point guard – just like the two they already have. He’s smaller than JET with essentially a similar game.</font></font></font><br/><br/><font size=\"2\"><i><font color=\"#000000\"><font face=\"Arial\">Vince Carter, SG, NJ</font></font></i><font color=\"#000000\"><font face=\"Arial\">. Maybe. At 30, he’s an all-star SG who is still incredibly productive and looking for 15M per year over 4-5 years, but the latest news from NJ says they are close to an extension to preclude free agency. If they don’t get it done, he’ll likely get outside offers from teams with plenty of cap room and may leave the Nets with nothing. A Jet-Buckner package would be big enough to match the numbers and might fit the Nets’ roster needs and price. Would the Mavs be a player at that 15M price? If it goes to free agency, the Mavs could have a shot.</font></font></font><br/><br/><font size=\"2\"><i><font color=\"#000000\"><font face=\"Arial\">Rashard Lewis, SF, Sea.</font></font></i><font color=\"#000000\"><font face=\"Arial\"> No. He’s a stellar offensive SF and his size and scoring would help. But he’s older than you think (28), he’s all offense, and you’ll have to overpay to get him to the extent that it might ruffle feathers in the Mavs salary structure for them to offer such a sizable deal to a player of this caliber. Also, the Sonics say they are intent on keeping him so are unlikely to be open to sign-and-trade, and given their existing guards I don’t see any particular fit for a s-n-t offer from Dallas (JET etc) that would really interest them.</font></font></font><br/><br/><font size=\"2\"><i><font color=\"#000000\"><font face=\"Arial\">Gerald Wallace, SF, Cha</font></font></i><font color=\"#000000\"><font face=\"Arial\">. No. Young (25) and very athletic with good numbers (though his stats may be somewhat inflated from the team he plays on). But Charlotte has plenty of cap room, he creates a buzz there, and we see no way they let him get away or entertain s-n-t offers.</font></font></font><br/><br/><font size=\"2\"><i><font color=\"#000000\"><font face=\"Arial\">Darko Milicic, C, Orl. </font></font></i><font color=\"#000000\"><font face=\"Arial\">No. Orlando controls him through restricted rights and is expected to re-sign him. They won’t raise the bidding by offering sign-and-trade options to outside suitors.</font></font></font><br/><br/><font size=\"2\"><i><font color=\"#000000\"><font face=\"Arial\">Andres Nocioni, F, Chi. </font></font></i><font color=\"#000000\"><font face=\"Arial\">No. Chicago controls him through restricted rights and is expected to re-sign him. They won’t raise the bidding by offering sign-and-trade options to outside suitors.</font></font></font><br/><br/><font size=\"2\"><i><font color=\"#000000\"><font face=\"Arial\">Anderson Varejao, PF, Cle</font></font></i><font color=\"#000000\"><font face=\"Arial\">. No. Cleveland controls him through restricted rights and is expected to re-sign him. They won’t raise the bidding by offering sign-and-trade options to outside suitors.</font></font></font><br/><br/><font size=\"2\"><u><font color=\"#000000\"><font face=\"Arial\">SUMMARY</font></font></u><font color=\"#000000\"><font face=\"Arial\">: Vince Carter might be worth a shot if NJ can’t sign him and is looking to salvage something rather than get nothing. Otherwise, none of these sign-and-trade options make sense.</font></font></font><br/><br/><b><font color=\"#3162a6\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">Trades for Superstars</font></font></font></b><br/><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">Since morphing from the Big Three of Finley-Nash-Nowitzki to the current Lone Star setup with only Dirk, Dallas has been lacking a true partner for Dirk in carrying the bulk of the load. (We stay that with all due respect to the development of Josh Howard.) It’s quite difficult to get a superstar without giving up the one you have, and the ones that do move are typically available due to some sort of significant problem. Is there any potential for that rare superstar to be available this summer? And if so, would he fit the Mavs’ needs, be affordable, and a good fit for Dallas?</font></font></font><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">We’ll look at the possibilities. But keep in mind that Donnie said the Mavs have no interest in blowing things up, and almost all of these players would bear a price that either includes Dirk or multiple starters – which to us sounds like a blow-up that remakes the core identity of this team.</font></font></font><br/><br/><b><font color=\"#3162a6\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">Trades for Superstar Big Man</font></font></font></b><br/><br/><br/><font size=\"2\"><i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">Kevin Garnett, PF, Min.</font></font></i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"> Garnett is a franchise player and perennial all-star. With him in his early 30s on a floundering franchise, and with the potential to walk away in free agency in a year, the possibility has to be strong (in spite of varying reports) that he gets moved. In February, we believe the Mavs took at least a passing look at making an offer for him (a Howard-Stackhouse-Croshere package) then declined. </font></font></font><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">His contract is huge, so it would take a pile of salary to make a trade match. The Mavs could legally package together the same concept they considered earlier (Howard-Stack-Cro, the latter two on artificially expiring contracts). But if he’s on the market now, there would be tons of competition, and although that package offers a young All-Star and ultimately a lot less salary going from KG to J-Ho, it doubt it would be nearly enough to out-bid the competition. Add Terry? Devin? Add one of those to J-Ho and an expiring (or 2, as needed) and you’re getting close, but those pieces don’t fit very neatly in Minnesota and it remakes the Mavs entirely. </font></font></font><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">In fact, the ONLY successful trade for KG that would make any sense is simply to offer Dirk (plus whatever salary filler it takes) for KG. That would only take one piece from their core, it would out-bid everyone, and such a trade would instantly transform the Mavs from being centered around an unconventional PF to a traditional one. It would also add the grit and post presence they’ve wanted. Unfortunately, it also would subtract the major matchup nightmare that has allowed the Mavs to now have the unique ability to compete with San Antonio and perhaps win. Would I do it? I’d be tempted, but I’d pass. </font></font></font><br/><br/><font size=\"2\"><i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">Jermaine O’Neal, PF, Ind</font></font></i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">. O’Neal is a rugged PF who scores, plays tough defense and rebounds. He’s reportedly available and Indy would prefer to trade him to the West. But he’s had repeated injury issues in recent years, and while we (rightly) think of him as more of a bruiser than Dirk, he still is NOT the classic low post player like Shaq or Duncan. In fact two of the main issues with him in Indiana are ones that would be just as big of a problem here: a. He wants a big bruising center alongside, where he doesn’t have to do the heavy physical grunt work, and b. He prefers to play mid-range and perimeter rather than on the low blocks. He is Dirk’s age, and his contract is near the top in the NBA. </font></font></font><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">But the trade price would be the key issue, and there would be competitors (notably NY and LA).</font></font></font><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">The Pacers would presumably want a big man and perhaps a solid PG or combo guard. JET would be ideal there, and Dampier would work too, but a Damp-JET package could (and would) likely be outbid. Sub J-Ho for one or the other? They already have too many good players at SF. Damp-Devin? It might not be any more desirable to the Pacers than Damp-JET because they badly need JET’s shooting. JO for Dirk? Not interested at all.</font></font></font><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">As good as he is, in the final analysis JO’s injury issues and his penchant to be a mid-ranger rather than a postup guy limits my enthusiasm to get him. Spending two starters (Damp-JET or Damp-Devin) adds some talent in the frontcourt but leaves an even bigger hole at guard, with no real assets remaining to fill it. And that’s probably not enough anyhow to get him. While pairing Dirk and JO would seem to be ideal on paper, in the final analysis this looks like a dead end. </font></font></font><br/><br/><font size=\"2\"><i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">Shaquille O’Neal, C, Mia</font></font></i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">. He’s the big bruising classic low-post center. He can score, rebound, and defend. He is aging (35) and often has injury/conditioning issues, but he still brings it in the playoffs. If the price was Damp-JET I’d do it even though he only has a few good years left, but Miami says he’s not available at all.</font></font></font><br/><br/><font size=\"2\"><i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">au Gasol, PF, Mem.</font></font></i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"> Instead of Dirk? No. Alongside Dirk? No. That would be a horrendous defensive setup. Not even sure if he will be traded but if so, I can’t see him coming to Dallas.</font></font></font><br/><br/><font size=\"2\"><u><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">SUMMARY</font></font></u><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">: The only idea here that would have a reasonable shot of working for both teams would be Dirk-for-Garnett, and while that makes sense in a lot of ways, I’d prefer to keep Dirk. I think the Mavs feel the same way. </font></font></font><br/><br/><b><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">Trades for Superstar Perimeter Players </font></font></font></b><br/><br/><br/><font size=\"2\"><i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">Jason Kidd, PG, NJ</font></font></i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">. He’s a big guard and he can create – which fits the Mavs’ needs – and he’s still a major talent who excelled in the playoffs. But with the size of his contract, matching both salaries and talent on both ends of a trade to get him would be a significant hurdle. Besdies, NJ presently gives every indication they intend to keep their core intact which means he would be unavailable. (All of it hinges on whether the Nets can re-sign Vince Carter.) Note that he has been mentioned by ESPN’s Marc Stein as Cuban’s No. 1 target via trade this summer if available.</font></font></font><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">The contract matching would be tricky and perhaps a deal-killer, however. If he’s available, the Nets will have decided to rebuild, but to match Kidd’s contract the Mavs would have to send at least one or two sizable long-term contracts back, which usually is inconsistent with the concept of rebuilding. The only alternative that might make sense is to fill a large portion of the required salary with an artificial expiring contract or two, such as a Harris-Croshere–Stackhouse package.</font></font></font><br/><br/><font size=\"2\"><i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">Joe Johnson, SG, Atl</font></font></i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">. He’s a big guard, young, talented, scores, defends, and is a leader. But the Hawks love him. He’s going nowhere.</font></font></font><br/><br/><font size=\"2\"><i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">aul Pierce, SG, Bos</font></font></i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">. He’s everything the Mavs need: he scores, defends, leads, is a big guard, and makes and takes the tough shots. Oh, and he’s got that “tough guy’’ thing. The only downside is his age (30). But is there a trade idea that would excite Boston enough to trade him, without blowing up the Mavs or trading Dirk? I don’t think so. And there have been no whispers that he’s on the market. This is a dead end.</font></font></font><br/><br/><font size=\"2\"><i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">Kobe Bryant, SG, LAL.</font></font></i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"> He’s a big guard with all the talent in the world: he creates shots, defends, and can carry a team. But the price would be Dirk, and Kobe has shown no indication in LA of being able to get his team far in the playoffs as the top dawg. Add in the drama and narcissism he brings, and we’re not even remotely interested. And I’m skeptical the Lakers will shop him even if he pouts – his antics mixed with his repeated oncourt brilliance make an ideal package for the glitzy LA market.</font></font></font><br/><br/><font size=\"2\"><i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">Ray Allen, SG, Sea.</font></font></i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"> He’s a big guard and has been an All-Star and leader for years. His offensive game is well-rounded. While his contract is big and long-term, and he is aging (32 in July), Seattle gives every indication they want him to remain their star veteran leader rather than move him for younger cheaper talent. The Allen-Durant duo, with perhaps R-Lewis alongside as well, has the real potential to make waves, and the team has a desperate need to create excitement for a new arena (or in a new market if they end up moving). Keeping Allen gives them their best shot.</font></font></font><br/><br/><font size=\"2\"><u><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">SUMMARY</font></font></u><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">: Jason Kidd looks like a nonsense-style target (his availability is questionable, and the price might not work) – and even at that, he’s by far the likeliest idea here. The rest are dead.</font></font></font><br/><b><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">Other Big Man Targets</font></font></font></b><br/><br/><br/><font size=\"2\"><i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">Marcus Camby, C, Den.</font></font></i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"> He is a superior athletic shot-blocker and rebounder that can score. But he is a bit undersized, aging (33) and has had injury issues. The Nuggets reportedly are looking for a taker, in a quest to avoid a sizable tax hit and open more minutes for the much younger and highly paid Nene. But there’s a catch: Denver is really looking for IMMEDIATE cap help (ie, a team with cap space to absorb salary in the deal). For Dallas to get into the mix, there would have to be a 3-way deal of some sort: Camby to Dallas, Player X from Dallas to Team 3, and then picks and/or a young inexpensive talent to Denver.</font></font></font><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">Unfortunately “Team 3” options are limited, because most teams with cap space will be hoarding it for use in free agency. Charlotte is the one team with an abundance of cap room, but who goes to Charlotte to make it work? It takes at least 7.12M in 2007-08 salary to match. Stack, in a sign-and-trade? They could use his leadership, but he and M Jordan are oil-and-water. Croshere as an artificial expiring? The money could work, but Cro doesn’t help Charlotte, and the Mavs likely don’t have a young talent to add that would make them eager to accept that much payroll. JET would work and would be ideal for the Bobcats’ needs, but if you trade your best trade chip for a 3rd center, how do then come back and fill the need for a big guard? </font></font></font><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">We think Camby could help in many ways – particularly as a center against those small running teams that give Dallas matchup problems. But the price is tricky. </font></font></font><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">If Denver would take Croshere and a pick and wait for a year to see their tax problem vanish, I’d say go for it, but it would seem they could get a much better offer elsewhere. If it takes JET to get Charlotte involved, I’m out, unless in that deal you can somehow get both Camby and the needed guard piece. Would JR Smith be available as a throw-in, and would he be enough? Steve Blake (in a sign-and-trade), JR Smith, and Camby, with the Mavs sending back DJ Mbenga or Diop and JET going to Charlotte? The viability of all of this hinges on how badly does Denver want to shed that tax problem, but something here might have potential.</font></font></font><br/><br/><font size=\"2\"><i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">Rasheed Wallace, PF, Det</font></font></i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">. While he has drifted to the perimeter more and more, his intensity and defense – along with his ability to score in the post – would be a great fit here. The downside would be his penchant for losing his cool on the court, along with his age (33 in Sept), but if there was an easy trade match I’d say yes in a flash. Unfortunately the size of his contract, combined with the Mavs’ assets, isn’t a good fit for what Detroit might want. They’d need a forward in return, and I’m definitely not offering Dirk or J-Ho. </font></font></font><br/><br/><font size=\"2\"><i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">Zach Randolph, F, Por</font></font></i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">. He’s a star-level low post scorer, provides 20/10 production, and is said to be very available for the right price. But he is horrendous defensively, which makes him a lousy complement to Dirk. No thanks.</font></font></font><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">Would a 3-way work, with JET/filler to Portland, Randolph going somewhere else, and Team 3 sending someone talented to Dallas? While that’s an attractive concept for Dallas, it’s a no go for the simple reason that Portland should be able to get a much better return elsewhere for a 20/10 low post forward.</font></font></font><br/><br/><font size=\"2\"><i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">Andrei Kirilenko, F, Utah</font></font></i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">. He’s a talented all-around player who does a little of everything, but he’s paid near-max and now doesn’t produce like that kind of player. His strength is defense but he has some offensive skills, too. The large disparity between his contract and his production is what makes him available, and that is unlikely to change in Utah since his game seems to suffer from sharing space and touches now that star PF Boozer is healthy and thriving in the paint. He went from a consistent long-term 16/8/4 player to an 8/5/3 level virtually overnight this year.</font></font></font><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">This isn’t an easy idea to evaluate on several levels. He plays forward where the Mavs already have Dirk and J-Ho, which would necessitate a move by someone to make a fit. And the issue of his decline in production, in light of the monstrous financial commitment, demands caution.</font></font></font><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">But – at least on paper – it might work, and in fact it might work spectacularly. Maybe J-Ho moves to SG and becomes the big guard the Mavs need. AK steps in at SF, and has plenty of offensive room in the low post when needed. With a duo of AK and J-Ho at the SF/SG positions, they could wreak havoc defensively alongside Devin at PG and Damp/Diop patrolling the lane. And he’s only 26, so there is some youth on his side.</font></font></font><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">From very public statements, it is known that the Jazz would love to move him but consider it virtually impossible. I’d do a ton of homework, to try to ascertain how he might fit here and whether that would make him an All-Star caliber player again, and if so I’d go after him. If Utah would simply love to erase his salary, offer an artificial expiring contract of Croshere, plus Buckner, and it’s big enough. If they want some talent, add a kid or a pick. If they want JET, maybe you even go that far, if your homework has told you the upside looks sizable enough. This opportunity is clearly worth exploring fully.</font></font></font><br/><br/><font size=\"2\"><i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">Brad Miller, C, Sac</font></font></i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">. A perimeter center, he has 3 big contractual years remaining, and his play has slipped dramatically. His defense was always spotty. The Kings would love to get rid of his contract, but an aging (31) overpaid guy who doesn’t really complement Dirk makes no sense. </font></font></font><br/><br/><font size=\"2\"><i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">Lamar Odom, F, LAL</font></font></i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">. Highly paid and consistently puts up strong numbers as an all-around SF/PF mix. He can score from the post, pass and rebound. The Lakers aren’t looking to give him away, and while they might find JET valuable, I don’t see how a JET+pieces package would be enough to entice them, and there’s no way you trade Dirk or J-Ho for him. </font></font></font><br/><br/><font size=\"2\"><u><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">SUMMARY</font></font></u><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">: There were attractive ideas among the forwards. With both Camby and Kirilenko said to be available, those are easy places to start, and the price might be workable as well. If it can be determined that there is a reasonable expectation for AK to return to his star form with a change of scenery, if he looks like he’s fit next to J-Ho, and if the price is cheap (3 really big if’s, but all of them very possible), he’d make a great addition and solve several holes at once.</font></font></font><br/><br/><b><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">Other PG/SG/SF Targets</font></font></font></b><br/><br/><font size=\"2\"><i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">Ron Artest, SF, Sac</font></font></i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">. The talented-but-troubled Ron-Ron has reportedly worn out his welcome in Sacramento already and is available. He can play, and would be well served by maximizing his defensive skills, but instead he wants to be an offensive focus.</font></font></font><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">At this point, I’d take a flier on him only if it didn’t take a core player like JET, Devin, and so on, but I suspect the Kings will be able to do better elsewhere. For the Mavs who are already elite, he’s just so unstable that you can’t take the risk of giving much for him, and his determined focus to be an offensive key subtracts significantly from his value on the court. </font></font></font><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">Besides, I want to see him traded to the Lakers to play alongside Kobe in one of those pairings that makes fantasy players delighted but becomes an inevitable train wreck. Envision Artest dribbling into a triple team for the 4th time in a row and forcing up some ugly shot, while Kobe is literally screaming at him from the perimeter to pass him the ball. I can picture the top of Kobe’s head flying off in rage. Next Kobe starts hoisting up 30-footers while Artest is visibly fuming at not being the offensive focus and refusing to play defense while plotting his response. It would be horrendous basketball to watch, but wouldn’t it bring the fun back to Sportscenter? How irresistible would it be, to turn it on and expect to see those two trying to play tit-for-tat on each other, night after night. “You watching Celebrity Death Match again, Dad?’’ “No, it’s riveting Laker basketball.’’</font></font></font><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">Artest to LA? Sign me up, and bring the popcorn. </font></font></font><br/><br/><font size=\"2\"><i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">Mike Bibby, PG, Sac</font></font></i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">. He’s a talented offensive PG, but his defense stinks and he is getting old. At this point, he’s more hype than substance. No thanks.</font></font></font><br/><br/><font size=\"2\"><i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">Richard Jefferson, SF, NJ.</font></font></i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"> He’s a bit more offensively gifted version of J-Ho, but doesn’t board as well. He’s not really a SG candidate, but he has perimeter skills. If the Nets re-sign Carter, RJ is likely to be shopped. But the only way they will trade him would be in a deal for a star or near star big man (C/PF). That means Dirk – and Dallas obviously won’t be interested.</font></font></font><br/><br/><font size=\"2\"><i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">Sam Cassell, PG, LAC</font></font></i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">. Sam is a leader but is fairly ancient (38 in Nov) and has injury issues that keep arising. He’s only a short-term solution, but in a package with Maggette as the needed SG who is big and can attack (as outlined in Part 1), I’m very interested. But would LA say yes?</font></font></font><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">By himself, I don’t see a practical way to get him. Due to how short-term he is, JET or Devin are way too much for him, and the Clippers don’t have an incentive to give him way. </font></font></font><br/><br/><i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">Steve Francis, G, NY</font></font></font></i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">. He used to be The Franchise in Houston, but now he’s just one of Isiah Thomas’s collection of overpaid scrubs. Is he worth chasing? At one time, he was a star and a leader, but the contract, the years, and the regular mediocrity, combined with all the pieces it would take to make a match, make him of little interest. I’d prefer to take my chances with JET, who is about the same size and in spite of his flaws, has consistently been producing here.</font><br/><br/><font size=\"2\"><u>SUMMARY</u>: Cassell could work in the multi-player package from Part 1. Otherwise, nothing.</font></font></font><br/><br/><b><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">Specific Mavs trades not mentioned above </font></font></font></b><br/><br/><i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">How about Terry, Buckner, and Mbenga to Boston - for Ratliff, youth, and the #5 pick?</font></font></font></i><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">That’s the wrong direction. You have spent your trade chips, and you didn’t fix a thing. Yes you got some pieces for the future, but any trade needs to improve the chances for 2007/08. </font></font></font><br/><br/><i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">How about Devin Harris to Atlanta, for the #11 pick and one of the Josh’s (Smith or Childress)?</font></font></font></i><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">Going on the assumption that DH is going to be the full-time starting PG here next year and the Mavs see him as a future star, I’m not at all interested. </font></font></font><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">But in the event that they’ve secretly decided he can’t or won’t be that guy, I’m in favor of turning the team over to JET and getting the best return possible for Devin right now, before he signs an extension and while his trade value is sizable. This idea could make sense for the Hawks who want a PG, and it would return the perimeter size and scoring the Mavs need, plus a pick. Likelihood? While it makes sense on a lot of levels, very low, I suspect. … again in large part because we believe the Mavs still have a great deal of faith in DH.</font></font></font><br/><br/><i><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">What other trades make sense?</font></font></font></i><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">Our two favorites, due to the simplicity factor of trading excess for need, were outlined in Part 1:</font></font></font><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">Terry-Buckner to Minnesota for Davis-James.</font></font></font><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">Terry-Buckner to LAC for Maggette-Cassell.</font></font></font><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">The first of those seems no longer possible, since James will reportedly be traded to Houston. But the T-wolves have other equally viable players to fill that slot at a similar salary. We’d still be interested.</font></font></font><br/><br/><b><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">Trades using the Trade Exception</font></font></font></b><br/><br/><font size=\"2\"><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">While using the Trade Exception would technically be a trade, it would really be more of a free agency tool, in that the Mavs could use it for a sign-and-trade without sending any players in return. It would be ideal for working with</font></font><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Times New Roman\"> a team that doesn’t want salary.</font></font></font><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">My ideal target would be <i>Grant Hill</i>. Orlando is hoarding cap space for premium free agents and would have no desire to get a player back, but would most likely cooperate for a free pick or cash. If Hill can be acquired by this method, it would preserve the full MLE for satisfying a 2nd need. Word is he has a short list (Detroit and Phx) but that shouldn’t deter Dallas from examining it.</font></font></font><br/><br/><font size=\"2\"><u><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">BOTTOM LINE ON ALL THE SPECIFIC TRADES</font></font></u><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">: Altogether, there weren’t many ideas that made sense to us and seemed somehow doable. Here they are in one place: </font></font></font><br/><br/><font size=\"2\"><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Symbol\">· </font></font><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">Terry-Buckner to Minnesota for Davis-filler </font></font></font><br/><font size=\"2\"><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Symbol\">· </font></font><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">Terry-Buckner to LAC for Maggette-Cassell </font></font></font><br/><font size=\"2\"><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Symbol\">· </font></font><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">Jason Kidd for Harris and expirings </font></font></font><br/><font size=\"2\"><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Symbol\">· </font></font><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">Vince Carter in a sign-and-trade (if NJ can’t sign him) </font></font></font><br/><font size=\"2\"><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Symbol\">· </font></font><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">Kirilenko (if he’s cheap, repairable, and Jho can fit at SG) </font></font></font><br/><font size=\"2\"><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Symbol\">· </font></font><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">Marcus Camby in a 3-way with Charlotte using JET that also nets a guard </font></font></font><br/><font size=\"2\"><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Symbol\">· </font></font><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">Devin Harris to Atlanta for Josh (Somebody) and a pick, if DH isn’t going to work here </font></font></font><br/><font size=\"2\"><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Symbol\">· </font></font><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">Grant Hill for a pick, using the Trade Exception </font></font></font><br/><br/><b><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">HOW LIKELY IS A TRADE?</font></font></font></b><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">Among all these ideas, how much is likely to happen? Most likely, not a thing. Trades are not as easy as we think, and they take two teams trying to make it happen, not one. </font></font></font><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">Look back at all the options we’ve dismissed here. We’re left with relatively few that are even logical and viable. But we’ve been told that NBA teams themselves weigh and explore all the options we do, and more. If we’ve been dreaming up something that makes sense, they probably thought of it months ago and have tried to see if it would work or not. And then…?</font></font></font><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">An experienced NBA front office guy once told me this about trades: “When you hear rumors, be aware that 99% of what gets into the media is false and for one reason or another has never even been seriously considered. Of the 1% that is accurate, 99% of those never make it – the teams just can’t make it work for all parties.”</font></font></font><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">But every once in a while, one makes it through. Will this summer be the time, and will one of these ideas be the one?</font></font></font><br/><br/><font size=\"2\"><b><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">ARTING NOTE – AIR BALL</font></font></b><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\">. In our recent article on free agency, we selected Grant Hill and Chris Webber as the two players at the top of our summer shopping list for Dallas. After watching more of the playoffs, we’ve deleted Webber from our list entirely.</font></font></font><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">Before he went to Detroit, we thought he was washed up, but his play at season’s end and in the early playoff series made us think we had missed – and his size and post play would help the Mavs. But the more we see, the less we like. No thanks. We don’t want him at all anymore.</font></font></font><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"2\">We’ve elevated PJ Brown to the top of our list of big men. Hill still remains our top perimeter idea but the Mavs have reportedly been looking at a star Euro guard we know only by reports. Theo Papaloukas (30) may fit their needs: he’s a big (6-7) combo guard with excellent passing skills whose size could provide an excellent complement alongside JET and Devin. </font></font></font><br/><br/><font color=\"#333333\"><font face=\"Arial\"><font size=\"1\"><i>759am June 14 2007</i></font></font></font><br/><br/><a href=\"http://dallasbasketball.com/newmainArticle.asp?id=150\" target=\"_blank\"><font color=\"#003399\">http://dallasbasketball.com/newmainArticle.asp?id=150</font></a></font></font></font> |